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6 months ago
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THE death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi could ignite a powder keg of boiling tensions in the Middle East, conflict analysts have warned.
The West needs to dismantle Tehran’s ruthless regime before it harnesses full nuclear power and arms terror proxies like Hamas with formidable weapons, they say.
AFP
Officials transport a body from the mountainous crash site
The Iranian regime put on a three-day funeral for Raisi in an attempt to show he was adored by the repressed people of Iran
ReutersAlan Mendoza, director of think tank the Henry Jackson society, told The Sun that “we are sleepwalking into a nuclear armed Iran with no thoughts about the consequences”.
Tehran, he says, will continue to be “a spoiler in the region” alongside its network of bloodthirsty proxy groups – who it could arm with nuclear weapons.
Two Iranian-American analysts – who have seen for themselves the brutality of the regime – told The Sun this is the moment for the West to strike.
Dr Majid Sadeghpour and Dr Ramesh Sepehrrad, both at non profit Organisation of Iranian American Communities (OIAC), said the unrest sparked by Raisi’s death directly threatens the wider Middle East.
Dr Sadeghpour told The Sun that the Iranian regime is “extremely unstable and irreparably damaged” following the helicopter crash that also killed Iran’s foreign minister.
And Dr Sepehrrad, who thinks Tehran will soon see an uprising, said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s dictatorship, which has been met with increasing opposition for some time, is now “in chaos”.
1. CHAOS IN THE REGIME
President Raisi, dubbed the “Butcher of Tehran”, was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iranian people.
He died in a fiery helicopter crash along with seven others nearly a week ago.
Despite celebrations in the streets after his death, Khamenei put on an elaborate three-day funeral to convince the world that he was being mourned.
And in the hours after the helicopter crash, some Iranian officials accused Israel and even the US of being involved.
The conspiracy theories, to which Tel Aviv simply said “it wasn’t us”, are a sign of instability, analysts warn.
Dr Mendoza told The Sun: “The Iranian regime is particularly prone to conspiracy theories. There’s a lot of paranoia.
“The people who always get the blame for any of that will be either the Great Satan, the US, or the little Satan, Israel.
“It’s the language of the regime, used to tarnish whatever happens with the hand of the enemy.”
Maintaining the wolves in the regime from attacking each other will be more difficult for the regime… it’s a strategic blow to the Ayatollah
Dr Majid SadeghpourAnother theory that swept through the Iranian elite is that Khamenei took out Raisi to put his own son, Mojtaba, firmly at the front of the line of succession.
Dr Mendoza said: “If there were two contenders, and one gets removed it’s obviously natural for conspiracy theories to go: ‘Who stands to benefit?’ It’s the other side again.”
Iranian-American Dr Sepehrrad, who watched her own parents and young sister arrested in Iran for supporting pro-democracy literature in the 1980s, explained why the false claims are dangerous.
She said they allow Iran’s elite to “distract the conversation from losing a major player in the succession planning of the supreme leader”.
It doesn’t ultimately matter what caused the crash, she argues, as the regime is still “in chaos”.
Dr Sadeghpour also told The Sun that Tehran’s government has been made “significantly and strategically weaker” thanks to internal turmoil following Raisi’s death.
He said: “Raisi is an enforcer for the [Iranian] mafia… his loss is significant.
“The ‘godfather’ may find another enforcer, but finding one of that set of qualifications and brutality will be somewhat difficult.”
He added: “Maintaining the wolves in the regime from attacking each other will be more difficult for the regime. That’s why it’s a strategic blow to the Ayatollah.
“It is extremely unstable. What we see is actually the infighting… we can see that this regime is irreparably damaged.”
Iranian military investigators have so far found no evidence of foul play in the helicopter crash, according to state media.
Raisi was being groomed to take over from Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei (pictured together in 2019)2. UPRISINGS IN IRAN
Dr Sepehrrad told The Sun that the response to Raisi’s death could prompt an uprising – as Khamenei’s path to survival is weakened.
“[Raisi] delivered on every ask when it came to brutality, when it when it came to violence, when it came to wars,” she said.
“[Khamenei] was grooming Raisi, because he was looking for someone that can really 100 per cent carry out the violence and the backward ideology of a supreme leader in Iran.
“This is where Khamenei sees his path to survival. Now he doesn’t have a runway to groom another one.
“And that runway is essentially going to choke this regime. I think they’re going to see another uprising.”
[The Iranian people] are seeing a new opening for a massive blow to this regime, whether it comes in a form of nationwide uprising or any other form
Dr Ramesh SepehrradDr Sepehrrad thinks that the response to Raisi’s death is a clear sign of a brave opposition movement happening inside Iran.
She said “the celebrations, the fireworks, the passing out of the sweets, the comments and the clips that are coming from inside Iran”, shows the joy of the Iranian people at the death of their “Butcher” president.
“It really tells you how this is resonating with the Iranian people,” she added.
“How they’re seeing a new opening for a massive blow to this regime, whether it comes in a form of nationwide uprising or any other form.”
And Dr Mendoza believes that the incoming so-called “vote” for a new president could act as the catalyst for such protests inside an already turbulent Iran.
He said: “What might spark a movement of unrest is what happens in the choice of a replacement.
“The regime has had a great record of cheating over many years… If there’s such blatant rigging of a poll again this time that may well spark a sort of more extreme unrest.
“That would be a dangerous moment against the regime.”
APWho was Ebrahim Raisi?
By Jessica Baker, Foreign News Reporter
IRAN’S hardline president Ebrahim Raisi has a bloody history steeped in murder and helped oversee the mass executions of thousands.
The 63-year-old had positioned himself as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – before he died suddenly in a helicopter crash on Sunday.
Known by some as The Butcher, Raisi won a landslide victory and was declared Iran’s president in 2021.
The brute is alleged to have been a key member of the so-called “Death Commission” which ordered thousands of political prisoners to be killed in 1988, as Iran‘s eight-year war with Iraq came to an end.
His alleged role was said to be pivotal in winning him the support of powerful Iranian theocratic rulers.
The US sanctioned Raisi in 2019 for his “administrative oversight” of the executions of juvenile offenders, and for the torture and “amputations” inflicted on prisoners in Iran – as well as for the 1988 mass executions.
Raisi later led the country as it enriched uranium near weapons-grade levels, and was in power when Iran launched a massive drone and missile attack on Israel in April.
The president allegedly ordered the torture of pregnant women, had prisoners thrown off cliffs, had people flogged with electric cords, and oversaw countless other brutal acts of violence.
Mass protests swept Iran in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who had been detained over allegedly not wearing a hijab, or headscarf, as was required by authorities.
Following the demonstrations, a months long security crackdown saw more than 500 people killed and more than 22,000 others detained.
In March, a United Nations investigative panel found that Iran was responsible for the physical violence that led to Amini’s death.
3. ARMING PROXIES
Dr Sepehrrad said Iran currently relies on two key policies: “Violence and crackdown at home and proxy war in the region, and this is how the regime maintains its balance.”
Dr Sadeghpour, who escaped Iran after the 1979 revolution following his brother’s execution, explains how the violence at home affects the rest of the Middle East.
It is “simultaneous” to the violence carried out by Iran’s bloodthirsty network of terror proxy groups – Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Violence and crackdown at home and proxy war in the region, and this is how the regime maintains its balance
Dr Ramesh SepehrradHe told The Sun: “That level of violence against the people of Iran is simultaneous with the level of violence [via proxy groups].
“They’re parallel. They go up together. They’re synchronised.”
Against a backdrop of already boiling tensions in the region, Iran’s clandestine nuclear power poses a serious risk.
Dr Mendoza told The Sun that Tehran could “extend the nuclear umbrella to all their proxies as well if they wanted to” across the Middle East.
The West would then “have trouble containing Hezbollah, containing Hamas, containing the Houthis who are operating in the Gulf”.
The Middle East is already reeling from the war in Gaza as Israel battles HamasAlamy
Getty
NUCLEAR THREAT
Following Raisi’s death, Dr Mendoza says, “Iran will stay on its path of opposition to the West, as part of opposition to Israel… and will continue to be a spoiler in the region“.
In fact, its clandestine nuclear programme has now reached the point where Tehran could build a nuclear bomb today, Dr Mendoza claimed.
He told The Sun: “The working assumption is that they could, if they wanted to, build a nuclear bomb now.
“They’ve made their statement already, which is: ‘We are, you know, on the cusp of getting the nuclear bomb’.”
We are sleepwalking into a nuclear armed Iran with no thoughts about the consequences
Dr Alan MendozaThe US and UK, he argues, have done nothing to stop this.
“They’ve been enriching uranium, increasing the number of centrifuges, doing all the things you need to do to get to that nuclear breakout level and they’ve been unpunished.
“There have been no sanctions on them. Nobody is snapping back at things they have said. This is a problem. They’ve kind of gotten away with it.”
Dr Mendoza warned: “It does appear that we’re sleepwalking into a nuclear armed Iran with no thoughts about the consequences.”
He believes the West needs to act now and prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, which would be “a great danger to the entire world”.
If sanctions aren’t enough, he believes the world will have “no choice but to look at removing the regime” by force.
Iranian technicians work at one of the country’s uranium sites
Iran poses a threat to Israel, the US and the rest of the West
EPA
English (US)