A Meloni-Le Pen super group? Not so fast

BRUSSELS — Sometimes, it’s the thrill of the chase. 

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, courted by senior political suitors from the European Commission president to Europe’s most prominent far-right leader, is leaving her options open days before the European election. 

Days before the June 6 to 9 European election, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen seemingly has put forth another offer to Meloni to form a right-wing super group in the European Parliament. Le Pen’s National Rally currently sits with the Identity and Democracy (ID) group of far-right parties, while Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party sits with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group of right-wing parties.

Some analysts suggest this declaration from Le Pen is election-time posturing or a threat to the center-right European People’s Party and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. A unified right-wing and far-right political force is a less-than-ideal scenario for the EPP and its current socialist and liberal coalition partners, who are currently in control of the European Parliament. 

Hard right unity could provide the right-wing and far-right groups leverage on two major fronts. First, it could set the potential super group up to block a second mandate for von der Leyen. Second, it could allow them to steer the direction of critical EU policy from migration to climate and shift it rightward.

A member of the ID group, who was granted anonymity, like others quoted in this piece, to speak candidly, said it’s clear where Meloni’s interests lie. 

“Between the friendly and authentic affection from Le Pen and the one from the Commission president who distributes billions of euros, who do you think is the most relevant? If von der Leyen or her successor opens the door to a good relationship with Meloni, where does the latter have more interest? If Meloni has the choice, she will choose the most useful path for Italy. Now, Le Pen offers a backup plan.”

For months, von der Leyen and the EPP have not ruled out a coalition with Meloni’s ECR. The two have inched closer, signaling a potential opportunity for collaboration in a new Parliament as von der Leyen tilts towards the right-wing leader’s views on migration while Meloni has brought her ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to the table to agree on EU aid to Ukraine.

Hermann Tertsch, a Spanish member of the European Parliament with ECR, said that it’s high time to join forces “against all this [European] People’s Party and socialists doing an agenda which is quite awful for the European interests. I think we need it really hard and strongly and urgently, that all the democratic conservative forces unite and put the EPP in front of their own deeds.” 

Tertsch added the solution might not be a single group but that clearly “things are moving.” 

In 2019, von der Leyen only narrowly got the sign-off from European lawmakers. This time around, she has continuously courted Meloni, including showing up in Lampedusa as the Italian leader put forth a tough stance on migration in 2023. One year before, when Meloni rose to the Italian top job in 2022, she was seen by European leaders as a far-right politician who mainstream conservatives wanted to keep at arm’s length. Now, she is portrayed as a more mainstream conservative, in part due to her relationship with von der Leyen.

Le Pen, with her comments this weekend, might have provided Meloni with another strategic option in the European Parliament if hard right parties do as well as polls have suggested in recent months.

Le Pen is offering Meloni a backup plan. | Oscar del Pozo/AFP via Getty Images

Still, there are no wedding bells in sight just yet for Le Pen and Meloni. 

For now, Meloni has left all options on the table among parties on the right.

Speaking on Italian Rai Radio1 on Monday, Meloni said that her political group could play a crucial role in the next European Parliament, as could Italy. She said: “We should be happy. I don’t remember Italy being particularly central in the past. We conservatives are the only ones that can create a change in step.”  

But cooperation with the EPP, which is expected to remain the biggest group in the European Parliament, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, might be more useful for Meloni.

One ECR insider said: “Meloni will not easily team up with Le Pen and cut herself off power and influence.” 

Le Pen’s offer should be viewed in the context of the French campaign ahead of the European Parliament election, said one ECR insider, as she attempts to be seen as more of a mainstream conservative herself.

For now, Meloni has left all options on the table among parties on the right. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

Her party has spent years distancing itself from its far-right past to try to appeal to mainstream voters. Her party’s criticism of the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) following a series of scandals last week led to the ID group expelling AfD. The distance that Le Pen publicly took from the AfD was widely seen as an attempt to normalize her party ahead of the French presidential election in 2027.  

According to another member of the European Parliament from ECR, Le Pen’s comments were intended to create a “smokescreen” to conceal the difficulties experienced by the National Rally in securing its future in the European Parliament since its break with the AfD.

Kicking AfD out of ID could leave the far-right even more fragmented and the National Rally in an even more vulnerable position in which they might lose some of their current group to an even more far-right grouping if AfD creates their own in the next Parliament.

“NR faces the risk of going back to their 2014 situation, when they had the biggest French delegation but no group,” said another member of ECR.

On Monday, the National Rally went to great pains to play down the importance of Le Pen’s remarks, insisting they had been taken out of context.

Thibaut François, a French MEP for the National Rally and advisor to Le Pen on European affairs, said: “There never was an idea of a super group.”

Le Pen simply wanted to “reinforce ID,” her group in Parliament, and create unity “in terms of [votes] to create a blocking minority,” François said.

Barbara Moens and Eddy Wax reported from Brussels. Sarah Paillou reported from Paris. Hannah Robers reported from Rome.