A Trump win could save Germany’s ailing coalition

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BERLIN — Germany’s fractious three-party coalition is teetering on the brink of collapse, but a potential victory for Donald Trump in November would likely compel its leaders to stumble on.

Coalition leaders face a series of make-or-break decisions in the coming weeks on issues like the federal budget and a sweeping pension reform bill. Politicians in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) have threatened to break up the coalition if things don’t go as they wish.

Scholz’s government has been on the brink since the European election in June, when the three coalition parties — the SPD, the FDP and the Greens — suffered a drubbing. Since then, party leaders have sought to appeal to their bases, fueling more internecine conflict and leading to speculation the government will fall in advance of the next scheduled federal election less than a year away.

But a win by Trump in the United States presidential election in two weeks could well alter the political calculus inside Germany’s sharply divided government.

A Trump victory would have a “huge effect,” including by forcing politicians to face the fact “that stability in Germany is all the more important,” said Ralf Stegner, a senior SPD lawmaker. “The pressure for restraint [within the coalition] would be greater.”

Even some in the FDP — the party seen as most likely to defect and spark early elections — are suggesting things will be different if Trump prevails.

“In an overall difficult global political situation, we in Germany cannot afford to somehow call new elections sooner,” said FDP parliamentarian Reinhard Houben. “If the pressure from outside increases — and if you assume that this would happen under Donald Trump — I could imagine that Europe would then move closer together.”

Contrast this to recent statements by Christian Lindner, Germany’s finance minister and the leader of the FDP. Lindner has repeatedly threatened to bow out of the coalition should his left-leaning partners — the SPD and the Greens — not take a more fiscally austere course.

One ought to have the “courage to ignite a new dynamic when the limits of what is possible are reached,” Lindner told reporters last month.

Seemingly unbridgeable clefts remain

Despite predictions that a Trump victory will inspire Germany’s coalition leaders to plod on, seemingly unbridgeable differences remain between the parties.

One of the key points of contention remains an issue that has repeatedly dogged the coalition: the federal budget. The German parliament is scheduled to vote on a draft 2025 budget in the final week of November, but first, lawmakers must find a way to close a gap of at least €2.4 billion — and potentially far more.

On Thursday, Lindner is expected to present Germany’s estimated tax revenues for this year through 2029. Due to Germany’s weaker-than-expected economic performance, however, tax revenues are likely to be far lower than earlier forecast.

Politicians in the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the country’s largest opposition force, estimate the real budgetary gap to be tens of billions of euros.

There’s very little agreement inside the coalition on how to plug the hole. Lindner and other FDP leaders are proposing cuts to social benefits, including for Ukrainian refugees. The SPD and Greens want more spending to stimulate economic growth.

The other major issue over which the coalition parties are at odds is a pension reform package that would raise contributions for workers in order to sustain the current level of benefits for retirees.

“A pension system with higher contributions means less net income for taxpayers and that cannot be beneficial for Germany as a business location,” said the FDP’s general secretary, Bijan Djir-Sarai.

Due to the FDP’s opposition, the coalition has long delayed a vote on the pension reform. But politicians in Scholz’s SPD are demanding a vote be held soon — and some are staking the survival of the coalition on the passage of the reform.

“We will only pass a budget if the pension is agreed beforehand,” said Tim Klüssendorf, an SPD parliamentarian. “And then the FDP will have to actively say they don’t want [the reform] and then I think that would be a point in time when either the FDP itself would leave or we would kick them out,” he added. “But that would really be the maximum escalation.”

A Harris win would make ‘exit scenarios’ more likely

Germany’s parliament is set to vote on both the budget and the pension reform in the weeks following the U.S. presidential election. By that point, few in the coalition may have an appetite for “maximum escalation.”

Trump’s election would usher in a period of uncertainty in Europe, particularly when it comes to the U.S. commitment to defend its European allies and continued military support for Ukraine. Trump has said he would not defend “delinquent” NATO allies — those who don’t spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense — and, in recent comments, appeared to blame Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Joe Biden for the Ukraine invasion.

“A Trump election could be a wake-up call for the coalition to finally come together” on the pressing foreign policy matters of the day, said Dominik Tolksdorf, an expert on the transatlantic relationship from the German Council on Foreign Relations.

In the event Kamala Harris wins the election, however, German government leaders will breathe a sigh of relief — and are then likely to feel far more comfortable going back to being at each other’s throats, possibly leading to an early end to the coalition.

“If Harris wins and it is therefore assumed that the U.S. will continue to be an anchor of stability, then people may be more willing to take risks when it comes to exit scenarios,” said Klüssendorf, the SPD lawmaker.

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