A turning point for Turkey’s democracy

Bilal Bilici is a member of the Turkish parliament, representing the Adana province in the Grand National Assembly from the Republican People’s Party.

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in the early hours of March 19, just days before his official nomination as the presidential candidate for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), marks a new and alarming escalation in Turkey’s ongoing democratic backsliding.

This isn’t an isolated event — nor is it legitimate legal procedure.

It is a calculated move designed to eliminate one of the most popular opposition figures in the country, and send a clear message to all who dare challenge the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP): Dissent will not be tolerated.

The timing of İmamoğlu’s detention is no coincidence either, as both the domestic and international conditions were favorable for the AKP to carry out its unprecedented crackdown with minimal consequences. This was the time to strike.

On the global stage, the return of U.S. President Donald Trump has created a climate where autocratic leaders feel emboldened. And his history of turning a blind eye to democratic backsliding suggests Washington won’t challenge Turkey’s actions, as it prioritizes geopolitical concerns over human rights.

Additionally, recent developments in Syria have seen Turkey’s strategic importance increase dramatically. Following the Assad regime’s collapse and Iran’s expulsion from key areas, Turkey has gained significant ground, and the U.S. needs its cooperation in stabilizing the region — particularly in countering Iran’s influence in the broader Middle East security framework.

Domestically, the arrest was meant to preempt İmamoğlu’s official presidential candidacy. | Serdar Ozsoy/Getty Images

With a potential conflict involving Iran looming, Washington is unlikely to risk alienating Ankara over the arrest of an opposition leader.

European leaders, too, are in a bind.

With the U.S. potentially disengaging from European security, Turkey — boasting NATO’s second-largest army — has become even more critical in Europe’s defense posture against Russia. EU governments, already struggling to reconfigure their security strategies in the wake of the war in Ukraine, might not be able to afford provoking Turkey. And while they may issue statements of concern, they’ll likely hesitate to impose real consequences, giving the AKP further confidence it can act without meaningful repercussions.

Domestically, the arrest was meant to preempt İmamoğlu’s official presidential candidacy. This Sunday, on March 23, the CHP was set to hold a primary, with over 1 million party members expected to participate. The turnout would have solidified İmamoğlu’s legitimacy as the main opposition candidate, creating a form of unwritten immunity against political persecution.

Even for the AKP — led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for over two decades now — jailing or disqualifying an official presidential candidate backed by such an overwhelming mandate would be hard to swallow. It’s a tactic more commonly seen in Russia, Belarus or Venezuela — not in a country that still claims to be a democracy.

And the CHP’s decision to declare İmamoğlu as the party’s candidate early caused alarm within the ruling party. Knowing his political momentum would only grow in the years leading up to the 2028 elections, the AKP moved swiftly and aggressively. But their decision to act now — before İmamoğlu could consolidate his support — reveals just how much they fear his candidacy.

In fact, their urgency betrays their own weakness: The AKP isn’t as strong as it appears. If it were confident in its electoral dominance, it would have had no need to crush İmamoğlu this early on.

In theory, eliminating the Istanbul mayor three years prior to elections would also defuse public reaction against the decision. Public resentment — and anger — is at its peak now. If the elections were to be held next month, or even six months from now, İmamoğlu would win a landslide victory. However, while public anger and the rallying around İmamoğlu will create some trouble for the AKP in the short run, with three more years to go, they hope it will fade in time.

Moreover, this preemptive suppression is designed to discourage strong opposition figures from mounting meaningful presidential bids. If İmamoğlu is successfully sidelined, other potential opposition candidates would be intimidated — or so the thinking goes — as any challenger who poses a serious threat to the AKP would face similar consequences.

İmamoğlu’s arrest is just the latest in a long string of politically motivated legal attacks against him. Since taking office in 2019, he has faced over 90 investigations, ranging from accusations of corruption and bribery to absurd charges of overloading public buses during Covid-19. The revocation of his university diploma just one day before his arrest was simply the last nail in the coffin of his presidential bid — a blatant attempt to disqualify him from running.

However, the simultaneous detention of over 100 of the mayor’s colleagues in a sweeping operation clearly demonstrates the crackdown isn’t limited to him alone — it aims to dismantle his entire political network. And it follows previous arrests of CHP district mayors from key Istanbul municipalities.

This moment requires urgent, coordinated action. The opposition must remain united, channeling public resentment into organized political action, as mass protests, legal challenges and grassroots efforts will be key in countering this authoritarian overreach.

İmamoğlu’s arrest isn’t just about one man. It’s about whether Turkey will remain a democracy or slide further into authoritarian rule. The outcome of this struggle will define the country’s future for generations to come.