American magazine: The disaster in Gaza will worsen and thousands will die even with a ceasefire

Researchers from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health and the London School of Medicine and Hygiene prepared a report in which they estimated the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the death of thousands of Palestinians, whether the Israeli war continues, escalates, or even stops.

A report published by the American magazine “The New Yorker” warned of the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the death of thousands of Palestinians “even if the devastating Israeli war that has been ongoing since October 7, 2023 stops.”

“The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza can only worsen.” With this title, the magazine published a report prepared by researchers from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health and the London School of Health and Medicine, presenting estimates of the number of people who may die in Gaza during the next six months for various reasons.

The report explained that “the matter relates to deaths caused directly or indirectly by the Israeli war, such as the spread of diseases and epidemics and the inability to access medical care services.”

The report's authors developed a hypothetical model of three possibilities: if the next six months of the war are similar to the first three months, if the war escalates, or if there is a ceasefire.

They based their estimates on the death rate over a 3-month period, and chose the month in which the highest death rate was recorded.

A disaster in all cases

The report indicated, “If the war continues on its course without escalation until early August, with Israel continuing to bomb densely populated areas and preventing the entry of food and medicine, researchers expect between 58,260 to 66,720 additional deaths.”

If the shooting stops immediately, researchers expect that between 6,550 and 11,580 people will die during the next six months, due to various factors, the most important of which is the spread of epidemics, as well as due to shocks.

The researchers also estimated that the number of victims would rise “to between 74,290 and 85,750 additional deaths during the next six months,” if the war escalated.

The New Yorker magazine quoted Paul B. Spiegel, one of the participants in the report and director of the Center for Health at Johns Hopkins College, as saying that what was stated in the report are estimates, not expectations. He stressed that the report’s preparers were apolitical and were keen to adhere to objective controls. During the completion of the report.

Spiegel said that even in the event of a ceasefire, many additional deaths will occur during the following six months, and this is due to the fact that health conditions have deteriorated and reached a dangerous level.

Spiegel stressed the need to bring urgent aid in sufficient quantity to Gaza, especially potable water and food, and what helps repair the sanitation sector.

The researcher stressed the need to allow emergency medical teams to enter the besieged Strip, highlighting that there will be a need for many employees from various specialties, including the specialty of dealing with trauma, because trauma cases are very severe in Gaza.

He also warned that the death toll remains incomplete, because there are entire families still under the rubble and have not yet been recovered.

He stated that they were surprised, during the preparation of the report, that there were many “deaths” in the ceasefire scenario, because many people believe that after the end of the war everything should return to normal quickly, but this is not the case.

He explained that hunger is a major cause of the high number of deaths in Gaza, especially among children.

Spiegel continued that he worked with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for 14 years, and visited all parts of Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, and discovered that in all the areas he visited, there was a way for people to move around and escape from the raging war, but with regard to the Gaza Strip, no There are safe areas, and there is no escape for residents.

Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir intends to open a Haredi battalion in the Israeli Border Guard, and intends to work on recruiting religious school students into the ranks of the police.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said in a radio interview on Tuesday that he intends to open a Haredi battalion in the Israeli Border Guard, and intends to recruit ultra-Orthodox youth into the so-called “National Guard.”

Ben Gvir explained that he supports the participation of all segments of society, including the religious Haredim, in military service, “especially when talking about the nature of the war that Israel is waging against the Hamas movement.”

Ben Gvir added, "Haredi recruitment will be successful if it is by agreement," noting that one of the possible solutions that could generate such an agreement is to open compulsory service paths in the police force to ultra-Orthodox Jews.

According to him, he intends to open a battalion to receive religiously extremist recruits into the military police, similar to the “Netzah Yehuda” battalion in the Israeli army. He also intends to recruit ultra-Orthodox youth into the so-called “National Guard,” which is currently being established, as part of parallel compulsory service. For the army.

Ben Gvir expressed his belief that the chance of integrating religious extremists into compulsory police service is much higher than the chance of conscripting them into the army, and indicated that he had held meetings in this regard in the police.