Analysts Forecast Mid-March Deadline for Solana ETF Decision

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted that the upcoming presidential election in November could influence ETF approvals.

Analysts project that the final decision deadline for Solana ETFs will be around mid-March 2025. This follows the recent filings by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on Monday for listing the proposed ETFs from VanEck and 21Shares.

Mid-March Decision Deadline

Eric Balchunas mentioned that while mid-March 2025 is the expected deadline for Solana ETFs, the November election remains a crucial interim date.

Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss. https://t.co/ywkf6oA8Rc

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 8, 2024

On July 8, the CBOE submitted two Form 19b-4 applications, one for the 21Shares Core Solana ETF and another for the VanEck Solana Trust. These proposed funds are similar to the previously approved spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which received SEC approval in January and May, respectively.

The filings assert that “much like Bitcoin and ETH, the Exchange believes that SOL is resistant to price manipulation and that ‘other means to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices’ exist to justify dispensing with the requisite surveillance sharing agreement.”

Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, noted that once the SEC acknowledges the filings, the “decision clock will start ticking.”

According to SEC rules, the agency has 240 calendar days to approve or deny the CBOE’s 19b-4 application to list the products from VanEck and 21Shares. These are the first proposed ETF products linked to the price of Solana, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency.

Political Climate’s Impact on Solana ETF Approval

Eric Balchunas provided additional insights, suggesting that the outcome of the November presidential election could significantly impact the approval process.

“If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything possible,” Balchunas remarked.

Research from GSR Markets indicates that Solana’s price could potentially increase ninefold with ETF approvals, mirroring the historical price surge experienced by Bitcoin.

The research suggests that support for the crypto industry by figures like former President Donald Trump has reduced opposition from Democrats, fostering bipartisan support for regulatory frameworks that could facilitate new crypto opportunities and pave the way for Solana ETF approvals.

Rob Marrocco, global head of ETP Listings at CBOE, stated, “We are now addressing the increasing investor interest in Solana – one of the most actively traded cryptocurrencies after Bitcoin and Ether.”

VanEck and 21Shares initially applied with the SEC in June to launch the new products. The SEC must also approve their S-1 filings before the products can begin trading.