As Europe votes, a populist wave surges 

BRUSSELS — On the brink of Continent-wide elections for the European Parliament, populist right-wing movements appear to be surging in ways that could have a loud global echo.

In recent days, far-right parties have been showing startling strength in polls in countries across the European Union. If this translates to major electoral gains, as now appears likely, it would deliver an embarrassing rebuke to the two most prominent leaders on the continent: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, both struggling with lackluster poll numbers.

Across the Atlantic, where U.S. President Joe Biden is facing his version of the same struggle, people who would normally be too confused or indifferent to follow EU elections may wish to take note.  

Nearly a decade ago, the Brexit earthquake in the spring of 2016, in which voters in the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, was an early sign of a global trend toward conservative nationalism. In retrospect, it seems clear this movement was part of what powered Donald Trump to a surprise upset over Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the U.S. presidential election of the same year. 

If the right performs well in Europe this week, it will suggest this same movement — once regarded as a momentary spasm — has enduring power.

After a tense election campaign marred by political violence — including the attempted assassination of Slovakia’s prime minister — voting in the European Parliament election kicked off on Thursday morning in the Netherlands. It will carry on across the EU’s 27 member countries until Sunday night, with final results known early on Monday.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party is expected to trounce Macron’s party, increasing the likelihood of the far-right leader, or someone of her ilk, winning a presidential election due in 2027.

Across the Rhine, the far-right Alternative for Germany party — whose lead candidate recently told an Italian newspaper there were good people to be found among Nazi SS troops — is seen as vying a second place with the Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which has its roots in the country’s fascist past, is due to increase its number of seats in the European Parliament. In Poland, the nationalist, anti-abortion Law and Justice party is looking to make a comeback after losing power last December.

The EU election is the second biggest in the world this year, after India’s election. | Ramon van Flymen/ANP/AFP via Getty Images

For a Continent that has prided itself on having laid the rest the ghosts of Hitler, Mussolini and Franco, the resurgence of the right as a political forces is coming as a shock. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows far-right groups substantially increasing their share of the 720 seats in the European Parliament to as many as 184 seats, as voters across the bloc swing to the right.

While Europe’s right-wing parties are unlikely to unite as a single block, their surge in support — and their normalization as political forces — will increase pressure on European leaders to crack down on migration to the bloc, water down plans to decarbonize the economy and possibly dial back the EU’s support for Ukraine.

Coming just five months before a U.S. presidential election, the right-wing surge is also seen as setting the stage for a possible shift in transatlantic relations. If Trump is reelected in November, he could seek to team up with pro-Russian European politicians like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to seek a peace deal in Ukraine on unfavorable terms for Kyiv.

But while the far-right will undoubtedly weigh on Europe’s policy choices, including vis-a-vis strategic rivals such as Russia and China, Le Pen and her ilk still won’t be strong enough to call the shots in the EU. Nor are any of these parties seeking to leave the bloc, as the United Kingdom did back in 2016 with its historic Brexit vote.

According to POLITICO’s Poll of polls, the pro-EU mainstream parties are on course to maintain a majority in the European Parliament. These parties are the same parties that backed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s liberal agenda over the past five years, voting in favor of her “Green Deal” climate change package, aid for Ukraine and overhaul of migration rules. In all likelihood, they will ensure continuity in these policies.

What’s likely to change are the EU’s priorities, with the coming five years looking set to be less focused on environmental policies and much more on economic competitiveness amid increasing rivalry with China and the United States, with an emphasis on tough border controls.

Von der Leyen, a former German defense minister who’s now seeking a second term as Commission president, is widely expected to serve another five years as the institution’s president.

But to get there, she first needs to win approval from Europe’s heads of state and government. The leaders would then submit their nominee to the European Parliament for confirmation.

With voters across the continent heading to the polls over the next four days, expect the political wrangling to begin in earnest from next week.