At NATO, the center left is having its moment. It won’t last.

Keir Starmer has arrived for this week’s NATO summit during a rare moment of unity for western center-left parties. 

The new Labour prime minister will join U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Canada’s Justin Trudeau as leading lights of a Western social democratic movement which has tasted electoral success post-Covid.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron, president of France, could also be lumped in with these leaders for style and rhetoric, if not always policy substance.

In the U.K., Labour strategists are keenly aware how significant this moment of progressive solidarity at the executive level is for solving challenges including climate change and the rise of authoritarianism across the globe.

At this week’s NATO summit in Washington, the focus will be on Donald Trump-proofing the alliance’s spending commitments and aid to Ukraine. 

However, Starmer may be coming into power in the U.K. just as the party is beginning to wind down for center-left leadership of major western capitals elsewhere. 

Biden, Trudeau and Scholz have all taken a battering domestically, and are trailing their right-wing opponents in polling.

While Macron cannot stand for reelection again in 2027, it looks as if his legacy could be to usher in a period of rule by the far-right Marine Le Pen, a prospect that remains an alive threat despite her National Rally party’s unexpected beating at recent legislative elections.

Struggling on the center-left

Trudeau is also suffering from falling approval ratings, largely caused by voter fatigue after nearly a decade in power, compounded by series of scandals.

He and other center-left parties across the West are struggling under the effects of global inflationary tides — a hangover from Covid and the conflict in Ukraine — as well as surges in legal and illegal immigration.

Starmer comes into power at a time where these same issues are of high salience for British voters, according to extensive polling, however it was the ruling Conservative Party which bore the brunt of voter frustration at last week’s general election after 14 years in power.

Even Labour’s own strategists have concluded that blame for a struggling economy and high migration levels will quickly shift to the new Labour government if it is unable to get a grip on them in quick order — particularly given the recent rise of Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing Reform Party. 

Even Labour’s own strategists have concluded that blame for a struggling economy and high migration levels will quickly shift to the new Labour government if it is unable to get a grip on them in quick order. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

One Labour figure close to the PM, speaking anonymously to allow frankness, said the Washington summit would be a moment of deep reflection for the new government as it calculates how to avoid the same electoral winds which have taken hold in places including the U.S. Germany and France.

“It’s a time when the center and center-left is threatened by a resurgent populist right in many countries,” they said. “[Starmer] is well aware, I think, that this is potentially an era-defining challenge.”

Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin, who is plugged into the new Labour government’s top tier, wrote in the Observer that Morgan McSweeney, the mastermind behind Labour’s election win, is handing out a paper titled “The Death of Deliverism” to party officials as they already look toward the 2029 election. 

The paper explores why the Biden administration has not got the political credit for presiding over strong economic growth and for keeping inflation low compared to other Western nations.

Deliverism of the nation

U.S. political theorists such as Matt Stoller, who coined the term deliverism, say the lack of credit can be attributed to a failure by the Biden administration to do more to communicate why his historically large spending packages are having an everyday impact on people’s wellbeing.

Scholz, a stolid figure whose popularity ratings have hit historic lows over the past couple of years, has also been criticized for not doing enough to communicate his strategy to the public.

He has also faced a public backlash about the cost of net zero during his term.

A No. 10 spokesperson said that Scholz “welcomed the Prime Minister’s commitment to re-setting the U.K.’s European partnerships” during a Wednesday meeting and noted “how important our friendships with like-minded countries will be in a challenging international environment.”

Sophia Gaston, foreign policy expert at the Policy Exchange think tank, said Starmer “will enjoy a honeymoon in which center-left parties run the roost of many of our closest friends,” but that “the winds are likely to change.”

“He will need to be able to adapt quickly and build common ground with new personalities,” she said.

Chief among these personalities is the 45th — and possibly 47th — president of the United States: Donald Trump. 

No hangups

Labour has gone into overdrive in attempting to woo the Republican presidential nominee in recent months, efforts which continue apace this week.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy is meeting Trump congressional allies during the summit as a part of an outreach to MAGA Republicans.

Ever the pragmatist, Starmer’s allies say he wants to be ready to deal with a Trump presidency immediately.

A second Labour figure close to the new No. 10 operation, similarly granted anonymity in order to speak freely, said Starmer would not have any problems treating with the Republican candidate as he has “no real ideological hang ups.”

They added that he is “comfortable with U.S.A. inc.”

If recent polling is correct, Starmer will very quickly have to switch from niceties with his ideological brethren to becoming comfortable with emboldened populist right-wingers.