Biden Isn't Losing Because of Bad Economic Vibes

In other news, I have a guest essay in the New York Times that evaluates consumer confidence data in some detail and considers what it means for President Biden's re-election prospects. When I started looking at this data late last year, I thought it presented an optimistic case for Biden. Now I'm not so sure, and the story wrestles with those uncertainties. I don't want to preempt the Times story too much, but the key insight comes from this graphic: