Bitcoin ETF Is Now “Almost Certain” to Come Through in January – K33 Research

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Growing anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has fueled the rise in Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market. As of today, Bitcoin surged past $42,000 and briefly hit $43,000 before facing a robust barrier at $43,500, failing to break through this key resistance level.

Research & Analyst Reveals ETF is Almost “Approved”: Here’s How?

With these changing dynamics, researchers at K33 Research expressed in their report substantial certainty that the green light for a spot Bitcoin ETF is now “almost certain” to come through in January.

In recent updates to its application, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has shown readiness to implement cash creation before the January 10 deadline. This move aligns with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) preference for a “cash redemption model” for bitcoin ETFs. This model facilitates investors to exchange their shares for fiat currency instead of the underlying asset, enabling smoother liquidation without direct bitcoin sales. Analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg interprets BlackRock’s choice of the cash-based model as a strategic pre-holiday maneuver.

K33’s senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth see this development as a positive indicator favoring the potential approval of the ETF within the coming weeks, despite acknowledging the cash creation model’s inefficiencies.

Notably, these adjustments in filings often follow discussions with the SEC, signaling the regulator’s inclination towards approving a Bitcoin ETF. James Seyffart, an ETF expert at Bloomberg, anticipates the SEC greenlighting the first spot in Bitcoin ETF between January 5 and 10, aligned with the initial final deadline for a Bitcoin ETF application.

Altcoin Surge Amidst Bitcoin Stability

Meanwhile, altcoins are gaining traction, witnessing a surge in open interest (OI). Despite Bitcoin’s trading volume surging and remaining high, the price has been confined within the $40,000 to $44,000 range. This stagnant range drives attention towards altcoins, especially those experiencing rapid price surges, such as ORDI, BONK, TIA, and INJ.

After 24 meetings and numerous filing edits, can the SEC deny?

Although a definitive timeline for SEC approval remains unconfirmed, experts and crypto enthusiasts expect a favorable decision by January 10. John Deaton and investor Mike Alfred forecast an astonishing 98.7% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January. At the same time, Trader Bob Loukas is betting on a 99.9% chance of ETF getting a green light.

There is a lot of talk about how a spot Bitcoin ETF might affect BTC’s price and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Predictions range from significant investments going into BTC to doubts about how it will affect current BTC operations, as experts at JPMorgan Chase said it would negatively impact the market.