Bitcoin ETF: Wall Street’s Most Anticipated Event in 30 Years Unveils 2 Hidden Risks

• Bitcoin ETF approval, potentially Wall Street’s most significant event in 30 years, brings new dynamics to the financial market.
• Two key risks identified: sourcing challenges for regulated Bitcoin and reduced profitability in the basis trade strategy.

As we look ahead to the possibility of an ETF approval by January 10, 2024, a development reported by CNF, there’s growing confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience and its impact on the broader financial market. This anticipation naturally leads us to consider what other developments might unfold in the crypto market, especially with the evolving landscape of ETFs within the crypto space in 2024.

In this article, I will highlight two primary risks outlined in the 2024 Crypto Market Outlook, as discussed in the year’s final podcast hosted by Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services at Coinbase. Joined by panelists David Duong, Head of Institutional Research, Greg Sutton, Senior CES Sales Trader, and Georg Toropov, Senior CES Sales Trader, the podcast delved into various aspects.

Emerging Era in Crypto: Assessing the Impact and Risks of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024

Notably, the total crypto market cap doubled in 2023, signaling an exit from its “winter” phase and a transition into a new era. The discussion included deep dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and more.

David Duong provided insights into the anticipated trajectories and pivotal developments for these major assets, offering listeners an informed perspective on what to expect in the coming year. The two potential risks associated with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 are:

1. Sourcing Risk: The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs could pose a challenge for institutions in acquiring enough regulated Bitcoin to meet their ETF holdings, particularly if demand surpasses the supply from regulated sources.
2. Basis Trade Impact: The launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to diminish the profitability of the basis trade strategy. This strategy, favored by institutional investors, capitalizes on the price difference between Bitcoin’s spot price and its futures contracts. The direct exposure to Bitcoin provided by the ETF is likely to reduce this price disparity, consequently lowering the strategy’s profitability.

It is important to note that these risks underscore potential challenges and consequences of introducing spot Bitcoin ETFs that may have been overlooked amidst other aspects of the ETF launch.

The Dawn of a New Era: Bitcoin ETF’s Monumental Impact on Wall Street

Despite the potential risks, a CNF report, released a day after the podcast, paints a positive outlook. Michael Saylor expressed confidence in MicroStrategy’s continued appeal to investors, citing the launch of the Bitcoin ETF as a monumental event for Wall Street in 30 years.

In a Bloomberg interview on Tuesday, December 19, Saylor conveyed his bullish stance on Bitcoin for 2024. He underscored the potentially transformative impact of the upcoming spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that this development could be Wall Street’s most significant in three decades.

It’s not unreasonable to suggest that this might be the biggest development on Wall Street in 30 years, Saylor remarked.