Bitcoin Indicator Signals A Potential Shift In Momentum – Can Bulls Reclaim $100k?

Bitcoin is trading below the $100,000 mark, with bulls unable to reclaim this key level for over three weeks. The price has remained above critical demand zones, but market uncertainty and volatility continue to weigh on sentiment. Investors are growing impatient, as BTC’s price action has remained indecisive, fluctuating between attempts to break above supply and risks of a deeper correction.

Crucial data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) on a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is once again testing the breakeven level at 1.0. This indicator measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or loss. Historically, a clean breakout above 1.0 confirms a shift in market momentum, often leading to strong rallies. However, failure to hold above this level has frequently resulted in renewed selling pressure and further price declines.

The next few days will be critical as Bitcoin tests this key metric. If BTC can reclaim $100K while the STH-SOPR breaks above 1.0, a bullish trend reversal may be confirmed. However, if rejection occurs, the market could face another wave of selling, pushing BTC into lower demand levels.

Bitcoin Price Action Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin has struggled below the $100K mark since late January, with bulls failing to confirm a recovery rally despite multiple attempts. At the same time, bears have been unable to push BTC below key demand levels around $90K, keeping the market locked in a tight consolidation phase. This prolonged period of indecision has left investors frustrated, as they anticipate a major move in either direction.

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, with price action showing signs of consolidation. While long-term investors continue to hold, short-term traders are looking for confirmation of the next trend.  Glassnode’s data shared on X reveals that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) on a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is once again testing the breakeven level at 1.0. This metric measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or loss, providing key insights into market sentiment.

Historically, a breakout above the 1.0 level has confirmed a shift in momentum, often leading to strong bullish trends. However, failure to hold above this level has frequently resulted in renewed selling pressure. The last attempt in early January was successful but short-lived, making this test a critical moment for Bitcoin’s next move.

If BTC holds above key levels while the STH-SOPR pushes higher, a breakout toward $100K and beyond could follow. Conversely, another rejection could trigger fresh downside, putting key demand levels to the test once again.

BTC Holds Tight Range As Bulls Struggle

Bitcoin is trading at $95,500 after days of indecisive price action, struggling between key demand and supply levels. Bulls have been unable to reclaim the $100K mark, facing strong resistance every time BTC approaches this psychological level. At the same time, bears have failed to push the price below $94K, keeping the market in a narrow range.

This prolonged consolidation suggests that a major move is on the horizon. Historically, when Bitcoin trades in such a tight range for an extended period, a significant breakout follows. If current demand levels hold and BTC finds momentum, a push above the $100K mark is likely in the coming days. Breaking this resistance could lead to an aggressive rally into price discovery.

On the other hand, if bears manage to take control and drive the price below $94K, BTC could test lower demand zones, with $90K being a crucial level to watch. For now, all eyes are on the market as traders anticipate Bitcoin’s next big move. One thing is certain—once BTC breaks out of this range, it will be a massive breakout in either direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView