Bitcoin Price Analysis: Caution Flags as BTC Tests $90K

Bitcoin recently broke below the 100-day moving average at $97K, triggering a sharp sell-off that pushed the price beneath the $80K threshold.

However, a strong rebound from the 200-day MA at $80K has brought the price back toward $90K, suggesting a potential sideways consolidation phase in the short term.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin’s decline below the 100-day MA signals increased selling pressure, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding the escalating tariff war started by President Trump. However, the 200-day MA at $80K has provided strong support, aligning with the key 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement range.

Given the prevailing market conditions, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate within the range set by the 100-day and 200-day MAs before a decisive move occurs.

The 4-Hour Chart

In the lower timeframe, BTC broke below a multi-month ascending channel, marking a potential shift toward a bearish market structure. The price has since been fluctuating within a volatile range, bounded by the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $83K and the key $93K resistance.

A breakout from this consolidation zone will likely determine the next major trend, with a bearish breakdown appearing more probable given the current selling momentum.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

Analyzing futures market sentiment has consistently provided valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price trends. One of the most significant indicators in this regard is the funding rates metric, which reveals whether buyers or sellers dominate the futures market.

As shown in the chart, funding rates have been declining and even turning negative, signaling that sellers are aggressively opening leveraged short positions. While this may appear bearish at first glance, it could also indicate that the market is nearing a turning point. A small bullish reversal could trigger a short liquidation cascade, forcing short traders to cover their positions and potentially driving Bitcoin’s price higher.

Given the current setup, the next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC will stabilize and initiate a rebound or continue its downtrend.

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