Bitcoin Price Forecast: Understanding Forces Holding BTC Price Sub-$60K

Bitcoin price forecast: The price of BTC dropped by 2.8% in the last 24 hours to trade around $57,556 at press time. Despite optimism among the market participants about Bitcoin’s recovery, several factors continue to hold it below the $60,000 threshold. Can Bitcoin break above this barrier before the Bitcoin2024 conference on July 25?

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Rising Wedge Spells More Downside for BTC Price

BTC’s price recently rebounded from its fall and started making higher highs and higher lows—clear signs of an uptrend. However, zooming out, the asset seems to form a rising wedge, which usually breaks out to the downside.

The Bitcoin price action is trending below the 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages. Price action recently touched the 50-day SMA and was rejected. The BTC price is expected to drop lower by 3.6% before attempting a 6.5% rally to the top trend line.

The current major support level for Bitcoin is around $54,000. A break below this could cause the asset to drop to $51,500. However, if the price breaks above the rising wedge (although rare), Bitcoin may experience an explosive move to the upside, breaking past the $60,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin transaction fees have dropped to a four-year low. As of July 7, 2024, the average fee for a Bitcoin transaction was $38.69, last observed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decreasing transaction costs may be attributed to reducing demand for block space. 

Data from Coinglass shows that the number of unique addresses active in the network reduced from 1.17 million in March to just above 652,000 in July. This data is further supported by the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index at 29 (Fear). It indicates investors are uncertain about the market direction and are moving to the sidelines.

Furthermore, the Bitcoin mining industry is experiencing income stress. The recent Bitcoin price drop has resulted in a decline in the hash rate, pushing miners into an elevated risk of capitulation.

These factors may impact Bitcoin price negatively, suppressing it below the $60,000 level. 

Trump at Bitcoin2024 May Boost Bitcoin Price

The Bitcoin2024 conference in Nashville will take place July 25 – 27, and Donald Trump is expected to give a 30-minute speech. This gesture may positively impact Bitcoin’s price as the presidential candidate has been vocal about his support for cryptocurrencies. 

In other positive news, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been ruled as commodities in the state of Illinois by the CTFC Chairman Rostin Behnam, hopefully ending any debate on whether they are securities. 

Check out my testimony today at the Senate Committee on Appropriations. https://t.co/KfLMZtk0Pc pic.twitter.com/u4jiQ8mcHI

— Rostin Behnam (@CFTCbehnam) June 13, 2024

Bottom Line

Recent market analysis reveals multiple factors keeping Bitcoin’s price below the $60,000 threshold. Understanding these forces is crucial for investors to gauge BTC’s short-term potential.

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