Bitcoin’s Bearish September: A Surprising Upsurge Prepares for a Bullish October

• Bitcoin defied historically bearish September with an 8.7% surge as of writing.
• The expectations of a massive rally in October are high, echoing Uptober sentiment.

According to our data, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an 8.7% surge in the past month, defying its historic bearish trend for September. This uptick in Bitcoin’s price has set the leading digital asset up for a generally bullish October. Some market participants even project a $70,000 target for BTC in the coming weeks from the current $64,000 level.

Impact of Seasonality on BTC’s Price

Seasonality is the propensity of assets to undergo recurring, regular, and predictable variations during a calendar year. While it may appear random, it could result from profit-taking during tax season in April and May, resulting in price slumps. Also, a normally optimistic “Santa Claus” bounce in December can indicate greater demand.

September is historically a weak month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended September 8 times in the red. For September, it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%, as previously reported. As a result, traders are generally defensive about betting on higher Bitcoin prices in September.

In contrast to September, there have been only two October months where Bitcoin ended in the red since 2013. Bitcoin has recorded gains as high as 54% and an average of 22%. That said, the current Bitcoin market trend this September appears different from the past. 

Bitcoin is now trading in the green, responding positively to several global monetary easing policies like China’s large stimulus announcement. Other factors include the US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cuts and increased institutional investments in Bitcoin, as CNF mentioned earlier. Also, increased interest in Bitcoin from US political parties has influenced price movements ahead of the November elections.

According to earlier trends, Bitcoin has consistently closed higher in October, November, and December. Market experts expect this to continue this year. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, commented, 

With crypto correlations staying high to macro assets, particularly against the SPX, we consider the friendly macro background to remain a strong tailwind for crypto prices into Q4.

What to Expect for Bitcoin in October

As of this writing, BTC traded at $64,775, representing a 0.6% increase in 24 hours. The trading volume surged 72% in the same time frame to over $24 billion, demonstrating investors’ renewed interest.

Surprisingly, BTC has achieved its first three-week winning run since February. Traders buying call options, offering an asymmetric upside potential above $75,000, have been the main drivers of the surge. According to the order flow tracked by Amberdata, dealers saw massive call buying activity at the $75,000 strike price and beyond on crypto exchange Deribit as prices rose.

Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, said: “The flow pattern suggests a bullish outlook for spot prices (due to the put selling).” At the same time, he predicts an acceleration in price movement.