Bitcoin’s Fate Hangs in the Balance: Analyst Benjamin Cowen’s Grim Warning

• Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen drops a surprise prediction, claiming Bitcoin could repeat a pattern that preceded a 2019 correction. 

• According to him, the asset may hit a local high and make a pullback a month before a Fed rate cut. 

Analysts are all bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and the potential approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund are expected to be catalysts. A price prediction platform has even predicted that Bitcoin could go as high as $120k next month. However, popular analyst Benjamin Cowen with over 788,000 YouTube subscribers issues a sound of caution that the asset could be repeating a price pattern that preceded a correction in 2019. 

If it does get that engulfing candle where it completely wipes away the losses from the prior week, and then we get a following move [this]week, the last week of December, then it would be setting up a very similar type of move that we saw back in mid-2019 just before the first [Fed] rate cut came in. That is something to think about. Will it play out similarly, or will it not?

According to Cowen, Bitcoin may stage a rally which could send the price to a local high. From there, the asset could stage a pullback a month before the Federal Reserve cuts rates as happened in 2019.

Supporting his prediction with a chart, Cowen stated that the Bitcoin price declined from $13,000 to $9,167 in 2019 pending the stated condition. At the time the interest rate reached its bottom in 2019, Bitcoin had continued its downward trend to hit $4,000. 

Next Fed’s Rate Cut Imminent, But CryptoQuant Appears Bullish on Bitcoin

In his statement, Cowen added that many are speculating that the Fed cut could come in January. However, others are also expecting it to happen in March. To him, the time would depend on the evolution of the labor market “between now and then.”

One of the things we pointed out before is that Bitcoin’s local high was in, again it wasn’t a major high and it’s not like even after this 2019 high, we didn’t even put in a new low, but this high came before the Fed started to cut rates. We’ve talked about this for probably well over a year. If we draw a line at the first rate cut that came in July of 2019, you can see that Bitcoin actually topped out just before the first rate cut, just before it, about one month before it.

This prediction is, however, strongly opposed by on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant which argues that 2024 would be a positive year for Bitcoin. According to the analysts behind this report, several factors could contribute to Bitcoin’s success and these include the halving event, the market valuation cycle, Network activity, the macroeconomic perspective, growing stablecoin liquidity, and spot Bitcoin ETF approval. According to the report, On-chain valuation and network metrics indicate that bulls may send the price to a medium of $54,000 and $160,000 at the highest. 

As of press time, BTC was trading at $43,156.36 after surging by 0.83% in the last 24 hours and 59.39% in the last three months. The asset has a neutral market sentiment with a market cap of around $843,740,975,286.