Bitcoin’s Fate Hinges on This Critical ‘Dead Cross’ Signal — What’s Next for BTC?

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Bitcoin has seen a notable price consolidation over the past few weeks, trading between the $84,000 and $86,000 levels. Despite the initial surge in price, the cryptocurrency has faced a decline of 3.7% in the past week and nearly 10% in the past month, signaling a period of stagnation in its upward momentum.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $84,263, raising questions about the future trajectory of the asset as investors await a clear direction.

The Dead Cross: A Signal for a Potential Price Drop?

BilalHuseynov, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake Platform, has offered valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current market behavior. In his latest post, titled “Will Bitcoin Drop Anymore?”, he sheds light on key on-chain metrics that may help predict the next movement in Bitcoin’s price.

His analysis revolves around the behavior of two important metrics: Realized Cap and Thermo Cap, particularly focusing on their recent crossover, which could have significant implications for Bitcoin’s price direction.

Huseynov explains that the Realized Cap metric, which tracks Bitcoin’s total value based on its last movement price, gives a more accurate representation of the network’s economic value.

On the other hand, Thermo Cap measures the total capital introduced into the BTC network through mining. When Thermo Cap crosses below Realized Cap — known as a “Dead Cross” — it signals that Bitcoin might be heading toward a price decline.

Huseynov points out that this situation is unfolding and predicts that BTC’s price could drop to as low as $75,000 if the second Dead Cross materializes.

Is The Bitcoin Market Condition Still Healthy?

In addition to Huseynov analysis, another CryptoQuant’s analyst Banker has provided insight into the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of long-dormant BTC.

Since March 2025, the CDD 60-day moving average has remained low, indicating that long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin in large quantities. This behavior is often a sign of confidence among seasoned investors, suggesting that they believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

The absence of major CDD spikes indicates that the market is not experiencing extreme price volatility, which could signal a period of consolidation or eventual upward momentum as selling pressure remains low.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

This development also coincides with recent reports of short-term holders exhibiting less selling pressure after their initial move of taking profits.

Decrease in selling pressure by 1-3 month holders

“These holders appear to show reduced activity in the market after taking profits from their short-term trades.” – By @CryptoOnchain