Bloodshed and a hope for peace: What does 2025 hold for Israel and the Middle East?

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The many conflicts West Jerusalem has been mired in over 2024 will likely be resolved during the coming year. How will this happen?

The last year has been characterized by more than 45,000 deaths in Gaza, the destruction of Hezbollah, confrontations with Yemen’s Houthis and an exchange of fire with Iran. 2025 will probably continue this trend. Yet, with the comeback of President Donald Trump Israel may also be given opportunities, including the expansion of its historic Abraham Accords.

Bloody but successful year

2024 has been a challenging year for Israel but also one of major military gains.

In its battle against Hamas, an Islamic organization that has been controlling Gaza since 2007, Israel entered Rafah, the southern governorate of the strip, establishing full control over the crossing that connects the area to the outside world. The IDF has also seized the so-called Philadelphi corridor, a nine-mile route that Israel claims is used by Hamas to smuggle weapons, money and militants outside its borders.

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FILE PHOTO. An Israeli tank moves along the border with Gaza in Southern Israel

Hamas, though still showing resistance, has been weakened significantly. Many of its commanders and top leaders (including deputy leader Saleh Al Arouri, the politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh and the man who inherited him, Yahya Sinwar) have been killed, wounded or arrested. 18 out of 24 battalions have been dismantled or damaged; military infrastructure has been either totally destroyed or put beyond use.

In the north, Israel has also registered achievements, primarily against its long-time rival, Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

In September, Israel carried out an operation detonating thousands of walkie-talkies and beepers carried by Hezbollah operatives. 30 people died as a result and thousands of others have been injured. But the blows to the Shiite militia did not stop there. Shortly after, the IDF eliminated the group’s chief Hassan Nasrallah, the people who could succeed him, the top commanders and their deputies – in total some 176 decision makers, in a move that paralyzed the group. Just like in the south, the Israeli forces bombarded key military facilities, seized weapons and destroyed tunnels. They disrupted Hezbollah’s ability to receive and distribute money and, most importantly, hampered its capabilities to get a steady flow of weapons.

With Hezbollah’s patron, Iran, Israel has also engaged in a number of confrontations. The most notorious took place in April and October when the Islamic Republic launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israel, prompting a harsh Israeli response. Although the strikes caused little visible destruction, reports suggest that they have damaged Iran’s capabilities to protect itself from future rocket attacks. They have also hampered Tehran’s abilities to produce certain kinds of ballistic missiles.

Experts believe that these blows, coupled with Israel’s repetitive strikes on Yemen’s Houthis, have weakened the once strong Hamas-Syria-Hezbollah-Iran axis, eventually contributing to the collapse of Bashar Assad, Syria’s strongman, who ruled the country for nearly 25 years. But the battle is far from being over; 2025 promises to bring more confrontations and bloodshed but also opportunities and potential resolutions.

Hamas and its future in post-war Gaza:

Although Hamas lost at least 14,000 combatants and 18 out of its 24 battalions have been partially or fully destroyed, the organization is still functioning and is able to challenge Israel.

Only on December 29 the group launched five rockets on Israel’s south, sending thousands scrambling to reach bomb shelters. Another such projectile was sent in October and, although Hamas’ capability to carry out such attacks has declined, officials in Jerusalem are worried it’s still able to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Some of their tunnels are still functioning and, despite difficulties and the loss of high-profile figures, the Islamist organization has managed to regroup, recruit new combatants to replace those who were killed or injured, and resurface in places that the IDF had previously declared cleared.

Even more so, the militants of the organization are still able to control substantial parts of the humanitarian assistance that flows into Gaza, understanding that whoever controls it, maintains a grip over the enclave. They are still holding 100 Israeli hostages, dead and living, and they have no intention of releasing them without substantial concessions from the Israeli side.

Hamas’ demands are simple. They want the war to stop, with Israel pulling out its forces from Gaza’s key strategic locations, including the Netzarim corridor in the north, the Rafah crossing in the south and the Philadelphi along the Sinai border – demands that Israel has so far rejected.

They also call on Israel to release hundreds of its prisoners, many of whom are serving life sentences for terrorism; and they demand to be in charge of Gaza once the war is over. For Israel, this condition is simply a no-go.

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Over the past year, officials in Jerusalem have been trying to find a solution to the problem of who will govern Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the idea of letting the Palestinian Authority (PA) take over the enclave, accusing its officials of fueling and inciting terror. The idea of moderate Arab forces hasn’t been accepted either, primarily because there were no bidders to take the job. Local clans haven’t been an option, simply because they lost the appetite, after being harassed and persecuted by Hamas.

In 2025, Israel will continue to try and find a solution to the issue but the general tendency in Jerusalem is that control of Gaza should remain in Israel’s hands, similar to what is implemented in the West Bank.

Should that be the case, the prospect of a deal with Hamas will remain remote, something that will only add to the already mounting international and domestic pressure.

Lebanon: Will Hezbollah surrender?

According to estimates, Hezbollah has lost more than 2,000 of its fighters and 176 top commanders and leaders in the battle with Israel, along with 80% of its rocket arsenal. But, just like with Hamas, the Shiite militia’s days are far from numbered.

Before the recent round of hostilities started, the organization boasted some 100,000 fighters, both soldiers and reservists. Its military arsenal contained tens of thousands of long-, middle- and short-range rockets, UAVs and mortars. Even if 80% of those are gone, the remainder can still pose a serious headache for Israel.

Quite often Hezbollah is doing just that.

Despite the holding ceasefire – which has been in place since November 27 – Hezbollah is still challenging Israel with occasional rockets and the targeting of Israeli troops inside Lebanon. They are still attempting to smuggle weapons from Iran and maintain their network of financial support within Lebanon.

It is not to Israel’s liking. The ceasefire agreement stipulates that Israel would maintain its forces inside Lebanon for the duration of 60 days until it starts to gradually withdraw them, but officials in West Jerusalem have confirmed to RT that Israel is planning to extend its stay, primarily because the international forces who are supposed to be filling the void “are dragging their feet” in establishing control over southern Lebanon, which puts Israel’s northern communities at risk.

Should Israel remain in the area beyond January 27, the ceasefire would be annulled and fighting would resume, leading to more bloodshed on both sides.

Syria: rising opportunities?

On December 8, when President Bashar Assad fled Damascus and Syria fell into the hands of Hayat Tahrir A-Sham (HTS), Israel didn’t waste any time. The IDF swiftly established full control over the buffer zone that up until recently has been in the hands of Syrian and international forces; it positioned itself on Hermon Mountain and, according to reports, started to operate deep inside Syrian sovereign territory under the pretext of protecting Israel from a potential threat of HTS militants.

Israel has no illusions about the new rulers of Syria. Only recently, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar branded HTS a “terror gang from Idlib” that managed to seize power in Syria. Although some officials, including the group’s chief Ahmed Al Sharaa, maintained they had no intention of waging war against Israel, officials in West Jerusalem argued that the real intentions of the organization, and which is still on the US Terror List, are not clear. And if that’s the case, Israel should be cautious.

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Yet, Israel also looks at it as an opportunity. According to reports, IDF officials have already met with Druze clan leaders of villages close to the Israeli border in a bid to form understandings with them and make sure they keep radicals at bay.

Israel is also maintaining ties with Kurdish militias, seeing them as potential partners in post-Assad Syria.

In 2025, Israel is most likely to continue and foster those ties, and it is also likely to continue and maintain its grip over the buffer zone and adjacent villages especially as the battles between the various armed groups of Syria are far from being over.

Although Al-Sharaa has recently met with representatives of dozens of armed factions that agreed to lay down arms and form a united front, some continue to pose a challenge to the new ruler.

A source in Iraq confided to RT that some elements are now working on the establishment of Alawite and other minorities’ battalions that will soon go into action. And if that is true, 2025 will bring little stability to an already war-torn Syria.

Yemen: big confrontation ahead?

Since October 7, 2023, Yemen has been a true headache for Israel. So far it has launched around 200 missiles into the state, with 22 crossing over Israeli airspace. In December alone, ten missiles and approximately ten UAVs have reached Israel. One has caused significant damage, injuring at least 16 people.

In addition, it disrupted maritime trade and strangled Israel’s most southern city of Eilat and its port.

During the war, Israel has reacted four times; twice against Houthi targets inside Yemen’s capital Sanaa but the strikes – that were visibly destructive – didn’t kill Houthis’ appetite to continue their fight.

Mohammed Al Bukhaiti, a Houthi leader in Sanaa, vowed to keep up the strikes against Israeli targets until it ceases its operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

In 2025, Israel promises to teach Houthis a lesson. Although it is not clear what that strike might entail, Houthi leaders have already gone into hiding, according to some reports. Israel is reportedly preparing a list of targets.

Iran: confrontation with archrival looms

In Israel, it seems, the decision to confront Iran has already been adopted. It is just a matter of time, magnitude, scope and the goals Netanyahu is planning to achieve.

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These range from destroying Tehran’s nuclear capabilities to potentially collapsing the current establishment, but estimates are that the Israeli PM will not go into the endeavor alone. He is waiting for President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to assume his post on January 20.

Iran won’t be sitting idly by, expecting a potential strike. Last Saturday, its foreign minister Abbas Arakchi stated that 2025 will be “an important year” or his country’s nuclear capabilities, and, if this is the case, Israel (and potentially the US) might think twice before attempting an attack.

Abraham Accords – expansion?

Netanyahu is waiting for the return of Trump not only because of him being a potential partner in a battle against Iran.

During his first term, Trump played an important role in forging the Abraham Accords – a number of normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco that were inked in 2020-2021.

Trump has repeatedly promised that once he is back in office that circle of countries would expand and, if that’s the case, it would score political points not only for him but for the Israeli premier, too.

Today, looking back at the outgoing year and Israel’s actions in Gaza, with at least 45,000 dead and thousands wounded or missing, it is hard to imagine any Arab or Muslim country would normalize its relations with Israel but, in the Middle East, money and interests have often prevailed over other values. They might prevail this time, too.

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