Bloomberg Analyst Predicts A 90% Chance of Bitcoin ETF Approval This Week

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Research Analyst James Seyffart has expressed optimism about the approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) this week.

During a Friday, January 5 interview with Cryptoquant’s head of Research, Julion Moreno, Seyffart underscored crucial elements shaping the eagerly anticipated Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision. He emphasized the significance of the Grayscale court decision, the entry of BlackRock into the cryptocurrency space, and Coinbase’s surveillance sharing agreements as key factors influencing the highly awaited Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision.

Seyffart further emphasized the court’s stance that allowing Bitcoin futures ETFs while denying spot Bitcoin ETFs is illogical. Notably, he argued that the SEC is now backed into a corner, compelled to approve the Bitcoin ETF due to the changing landscape and legal precedents. 

Despite potential reservations, Seyffart estimated a 90% likelihood of approval within the week, pointing to the January 10th deadline for ARK and 21Shares’ applications.

“I think we’re at 90 percent odds that we see approval within the next week, …We want to trade Bitcoin ETFs on our exchanges. The SEC has to approve that. And the way that works, there’s a bunch of deadlines.” Said Seyffart.

The analyst further outlined three potential scenarios for non-approval. The first involves convincing applicants to withdraw their applications before the deadline, which Seyffart considered unlikely. The second scenario is the SEC coming up with new reasons for denial, which he deemed improbable given the recent court decision undermining past justifications. The third and least likely scenario involves a dramatic move by the Biden administration using an executive order to halt the approval process.

While Seyffart acknowledged these as tail-risk events, he remained confident in the approval outcome, noting that the SEC had no alternative in current circumstances but to greenlight the Bitcoin ETFs.

That said, as the countdown to the SEC decision continues, the crypto community has been actively seeking hints and insights that may shed light on the outcome. Notably, a Monday post on the X platform by SEC chair Gary Gensler advising investors on factors to consider if they are considering investing in crypto assets was taken by some as a hint of a potential approval.

In response to Gensler’s post, Eric Weiss, CEO of the Blockchain Investment Group and the individual reportedly responsible for orange-pilling Michael Saylor, humorously commented, “Tell me you’re about to approve the bitcoin ETFs without telling me you’re about to approve the Bitcoin ETFs.”

Another person playfully remarked, “It is like a DRUG prescription from the FDA for me. It implies the DRUG is APPROVED, but there will be SIDE EFFECTS of the drug. That’s how I understand it. I may be WRONG,” echoing the sentiments of Cryptoquant’s CEO Ki Young Ju.