Breaking Down 2024: Analysts Bullish on Bitcoin, With a Note of Caution

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In the year 2024, Bitcoin is expected to have some exciting moments, as predicted by Adrian Zduńczyk, a seasoned analyst. His prediction is based on the Combination of charting techniques, chart pattern studies, fundamental factors, and seasonal records. He even cautions that while profits are not guaranteed, losses are inevitable.

Performance in January and Market Outlook

Meanwhile, Adrian Zduńczyk’s recent Twitter thread isn’t just about forecasts; it’s a guide with urgent stats and tips to potentially grow your portfolio over the next year. 

Bitcoin started the year 2024 strong, gaining 12% in December and an extra 3% on New Year’s Day, which is currently trading at $45,259 as reported by coinpedia. Zduńczyk taps into the S&P 500 January Barometer pattern, suggesting that January’s performance could influence the trajectory of the entire year, with an 83.6% probability. 

This, coupled with an abnormally strong S&P return, could reinforce Bitcoin’s position in a bullish stock market. Moreover, BTC’s weekly chart shows $30k as support, with rising 50-week and 200-week trends, and $48,000-508,000 as resistance.

Halving and Institutional Involvement

Looking ahead, the anticipation of the 4th halving in mid-April places Bitcoin at the center of speculation, fueled by hopes of ETF approvals. The potential involvement of institutions, highlighted by BlackRock’s iShares IBTC Bitcoin Spot ETF, raises the prospect of trillions of dollars flowing into the crypto market.

Technical Analysis and Bearish Signals

Despite the current bullish run, Zduńczyk urges caution based on technical indicators. Daily RSI and ATR point to potential slowdowns in buying momentum and increasing volatility. 

Bearish signals from BirbicatorPRO’s dynamic ATR trend model indicate resistances at $44,725 and $43,970, prompting a period of consolidation.

Greed Sentiment & Mining Costs

The market’s ‘greed‘ sentiment remains high, indicating a bullish environment driven by speculation. However, rising Bitcoin mining costs at $44,550 pose short-term profitability challenges. 

Meanwhile, recognizing seasonal tendencies, particularly in January, is crucial, given historical data forecasting positive returns, with an average end-of-month gain of +13%.

Historical Trends

Analyzing historical quarterly stats suggests an estimated EOQ1 target price of around $52,000. Zduńczyk advises caution against expecting significant selloffs, drawing parallels between Bitcoin’s behavior and that of a beta-volatile tech stock on the Nasdaq.

Relying on profitable facts and trend-following is emphasized for a successful 2024.

Tips for 2024

Zduńczyk’s tips for 2024 provide a practical guide that follows trends for profitability, eschews trading against them, and prioritizes raw numbers and solid data over speculative opinions. These strategies form a prudent approach to navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market successfully.