BTC’s Next Move: Why Historic Correlation Could Push Bitcoin Past $100K

• Bitcoin price has nosedived in the past 24 hours as profit-taking intensifies.
• Historical trends show that the BTC price has yet to hit its cyclical top, and there is more room for growth.

Bitcoin (BTC) has lost a substantial monthly gain and is now trading within the $92,000 range. The price is down 5.58% in the last 24 hours as the coin consolidates in a tight range. 

Bitcoin To Follow Historical Precedence

Despite this slowdown in momentum, analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Their optimism is based on Bitcoin’s history, demonstrating that prices usually break higher when market sentiment improves.

In an X post, crypto analyst Alex Adler Jr. shared a chart showing Bitcoin has yet to reach its cyclical peak. The chart analyzed BTC’s performance using the Simple Moving Average (SMA) Multiplier, a method for monitoring price patterns over market cycles. 

The orange dot has arrived. Red, purple, blue, navy, and black – is coming. pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) November 23, 2024

The analysis utilizes color-coded zones, ranging from green (at the beginning of a cycle) to black (at the top of a cycle). 

It helps to represent the Bitcoin market sentiment at various stages, from accumulation to peak speculation. “The orange dot has arrived. Red, purple, blue, navy, and black – is coming,” Adler wrote in his post.

This means Bitcoin still has five stages to settle before it reaches its peak. These stages have historically followed a consistent pattern, with the “black” phase signaling the start of a decline. Thus, if the historical trend holds, Bitcoin may surpass the eagerly awaited $100,000 threshold.

At the time of writing, the BTC price was $93,279, down 5.48% in 24 hours.

What’s Stopping Bitcoin’s Rally

Recent analysis from the on-chain analytical platform CryptoQuant reveals that increased profit-taking activity is impeding the momentum of Bitcoin’s price. 

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), which gauges whether investors are making or losing money from selling their Bitcoin holdings, stood at 1.049. A reading above 1 shows that investors sold at a profit, which put additional pressure on BTC’s price, stalling its advance.

Likewise, the Take Buy/Sell Ratio, which indicates whether buyers or sellers control the market, stood at 0.963 as of this writing. This shows that selling volume dominates that of buying, giving bears an advantage and further delaying BTC’s upward trajectory. 

Furthermore, the Coinbase Premium Index, which monitors the price differential between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, climbed to 0.1308, near the November high of 0.1384. 

A positive reading on this index (above zero) shows that U.S. investors buy more than other markets. This increasing demand has helped to stabilize the BTC price, avoiding further drops.

As CNF reported, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy recently paid about $5.4 billion for 55,500 BTC, demonstrating its long-term commitment to Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

As of November 24, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 386,700 BTC in its reserve. These assets were acquired at an average price of $56,761 per BTC, with a total investment of $21.9 billion.