Can France and Germany’s new love-fest survive their lingering differences?

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PARIS — Love is in the air.

The Franco-German couple (as the French say) or engine (as the Germans say) has rarely felt more in tune and more aligned. French and German officials are gushing that the relationship between incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron is already very close. In a sign of the budding entente, Merz has singled out Paris as his first foreign trip on May 7, as first reported by POLITICO.

“[Our] hope is that Macron, the Europhile, will at last find someone who can respond to him in Germany,” said a French diplomat who was granted anonymity to speak.

But how long will the honeymoon last will largely come down to where both men stand on key policy.

So here’s is the low-down on where Merz and Macron agree — and where they don’t.

Where things are going well

Defense

Merz’s decision to scrap Germany’s debt brake and massively invest in defense was welcomed with cheers in France. Macron has been banging the drum in favor of more investment in Europe’s defense for years, and at last Berlin has answered.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on Europe and mixed messaging over his commitment to NATO and his support for Ukraine only added more urgency to the rapprochement between Merz and Macron.

Both leaders now see a necessity for their militaries and defense industries to better integrate, which might translate into new projects.

“The different strategic approaches that existed between Germany and France on armaments issues will be eased, at least for future projects,” said Roland Theis, a lawmaker from Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) who closely follows relations with Paris.

France and Germany already cooperate on several joint projects such as the SCAF fighter jet and a next-generation battle tank, though both have been dogged by difficulties.

There are points of friction, however. France is annoyed that Germany under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz invested in American and Israeli air-defense technology as opposed to a European option.

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Transatlantic relations

Germany’s constant deference to the United States on matters of geopolitics has been a constant source of frustration for Macron, whose grand plans for the European Union never really resonated in Berlin. For all the talk of the Franco-German couple, Paris always knew it was more a ménage-à-trois, with Berlin taking its cue from Washington.

The return of U.S. President Donald Trump — and his pivot away from Europe — has changed all that.

The night his conservative Christian Democratic Union won the country’s snap election in February, Merz — an avowed transatlanticist — called for Europe to “achieve independence from the U.S.,” a seismic change that resonated deeply in France.

Nils Schmid, a German lawmaker with the center-left Social Democrats, which are in a coalition with Merz’s CDU, said such a move was a stunning U-turn for both the party and its leader.

True to its Gaullist legacy, France has always been wary of becoming too dependent on the Western world’s great superpower. Macron has cultivated close ties with Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden, but the French president has always pushed for a Europe that looks more like France and embraces his brand of strategic autonomy.

With Merz, that goal appears closer than ever. Merz and Macron plan to jointly influence Brussels to cut red tape and change competition rules to help make it easier to create so-called “European champions” in sectors such as telecommunication or technology.

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Energy

Energy was long a sticking point between France and Germany. Scholz and Macron would lock horns regularly on energy subsidies, as the continent tried to bring down energy prices in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

France argued for years that nuclear energy was carbon-free and therefore should benefit from EU subsidies on green energy. Berlin feared such an endorsement of nuclear power would make Germany’s solar and wind options less attractive.

Merz doesn’t exactly agree, but renewables aren’t high on his list — and that’s good news for France.

“There will be no blockage,” said Paul Maurice, a former French diplomat now with the French Institute of International Relations.

Still, Germany — like Portugal and Spain — isn’t thrilled that France keeps delaying the H2Med pipeline, which is supposed to transport green hydrogen from the Iberian peninsula to France and up northwards to Germany’s energy-hungry industries.

“The H2Med pipeline is in the well-understood interests of all transit partners,” said Stefan Wenzel, an outgoing German state secretary for economy. “I hope that a fair and balanced compromise can be reached with France.”

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Where things aren’t going so well

Mercosur

The massive trade deal the EU spent more than three decades negotiating with Latin America has long been the highest-profile disagreement between France and Germany.

Merz’s proposed solution to jumpstarting Germany’s skidding economy is to strike trade deals to help the country’s export-oriented economy find new outlets, especially with Washington looking increasingly protectionist. The Mercosur deal is at the top of his inbox, and he wants it ratified quickly.

“On free trade, the CDU [conservatives] and Merz will push very hard, with a trade war breaking out, it is even more urgent to diversify our partnerships,” Schmid said.

France has been fiercely opposed to the Mercosur deal, arguing that it would give Latin American farmers a competitive advantage because production norms are more stringent in Europe. Passing it now would be politically toxic for Macron, as it could trigger a farmers’ revolt and fuel support for the already surging far right.

But there are low-level signals that maybe the French government is shifting. French Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said Trump’s tariffs on EU goods were “a wake-up call” for France to diversify its trade partners. He said that Paris could change its tune on Mercosur if concessions are made to appease France.

In a television interview last week, Merz claimed that “even Emmanuel Macron is now leaning toward ratifying the Mercosur agreement.” Though officials in Paris have tried to tamp down such declarations, their counterparts in Berlin say in private that the French president is signaling that he might no longer vote against the deal but instead just abstain.

The deal was sealed last year but still needs approval by a qualified majority of EU countries, plus a majority in the European Parliament, before it enters into force.

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Joint borrowing

This is a big ask by Macron, and one that is likely to remain unanswered. The French president wants EU member states to agree to a joint borrowing scheme to get more cash for Europe’s defense industries.

Macron has also been pushing for an investment “electroshock” across Europe in strategic industries to salvage the continent’s economy in the face of growing competition worldwide.

The massive subsidies that Merz’s new government coalition is vowing to dole out to support German industries are only increasing calls for a joint EU borrowing scheme to avoid distortions to the single market. This debate is expected to intensify when the bloc starts negotiations on a new seven-year budget this summer.

However, Macron’s calls are likely to fall on deaf ears across the Rhine.

Merz may have reformed Germany’s notorious debt brake, which for years limited the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product. After already freeing up hundreds of billions of euros, Merz is unlikely to take on more debt at a time when he’s hamstrung by his conservative allies.

“Friedrich Merz hasn’t yet started governing and already he is falling in the polls,” said former diplomat Maurice.

“He’ll need to give his voters signs of his [economically] liberal and conservative values. So a European borrowing scheme is going to be complicated.”

One small hope for Paris: Merz has not completely ruled out joint financing of defense, but insisted that the EU must become much more efficient in procuring and producing arms before such an eventual solution could be discussed.

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