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Donald Trump spent the past two days attempting to present his economic plan, but according to one long-time conservative, his trade plan is nothing more than a tax hike.
Speaking to a group in Henderson, Nevada, at the end of last month, vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance said: “We believe that a million cheap knockoff toasters aren’t worth the price of a single American manufacturing job. We believe in rebuilding American factories and rebuilding the American dream.”
But George W. Bush's former speechwriter, David Frum, did the math and detailed the catastrophe it would cause in a piece for The Atlantic on Friday.
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He began with the average price of an imported toaster at Walmart, which is less than $10. But 50 years ago, that same toaster would "cost about $16, or $122 in today’s money. That’s $112 in consumer savings per toaster achieved over the past half century. Multiply by 1 million and the total reaches $112 million in enhanced consumer welfare."
Americans have become accustomed to cheap goods thanks to overseas labor willing to work for significantly less money and no benefits.
An increase in imported goods is a tax passed to the consumer, according to Frum. So, under the Trump plan, Americans buying the new toaster would pay more.
Frum also explained that most tariffs disproportionately hurt the poorest Americans. He cited things like a sterling silver spoon, which is taxed at 3.3 percent, while a stainless-steel spoon is taxed at 14 percent. A cashmere sweater, he said is taxed at 4.5 percent where an acrylic sweater has a tariff of 32 percent.
He pointed out that another problem is that most goods for women are also taxed significantly higher than for men.
"Women’s underwear, for example, carries a tariff of 15.5 percent; men’s underwear, 11.5 percent," he said.
The piece goes on to walk through the policies suggested by Trump and enacted during his first term in office and those adopted by President Joe Biden.
Ultimately, under Trump's second term, his dealmaking skills tend to end in "quarrels" with American allies "and comfort to adversaries." Frum closed by telling Americans it isn't too late to "do better."