Decoding the Possibilities Of SEC Approving Ethereum ETF in 2024

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The crypto community is buzzing with anticipation as renowned analyst James Seyffart speculates a 60% chance of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Standard Chartered Bank, the SEC may follow a strategy similar to Spot Bitcoin ETFs, initially rejecting before approving the final deadline of 23rd May 24. Even Bloomberg analysts agree with the SEC’s denial and approval game to cause the market to tumble. 

However, the good news about the ETH ETF approval comes from Geoffrey Kendrick’s faith in the SEC’s past views on Ethereum. Notably, in lawsuits against crypto companies, the SEC has not labeled Ether as a security. Also, Ethereum is a regulated futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which makes the expectation of approval more likely.

Industry Experts and Reports

In a recent interview with Scott Melker, Seyffart shed light on the SEC’s initial delay but believes it will eventually lead to Ethereum ETF approval. He decodes strategies the SEC could draw, such as Proof of Stake (PoS) vs. Proof of Work (PoW), potentially delaying the decision. Making it direct, reports from TD Cowen suggest a potential delay until 2025 or 2026, aligning with the SEC’s cautious approach in the current U.S. political climate.

Delay or Approval? Analyst See’s 60% Chance

Seyffart is less confident in Ethereum ETF approval than Bitcoin ETFs, with odds around 60%. The SEC’s decision will extend beyond Ethereum, impacting the entire crypto market. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs notably influenced Bitcoin’s price, and a similar response is expected for Ethereum after ETF approval. 

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink support an SEC-approved spot Ethereum ETF. According to Lubin, ETFs are more efficient than other financial tools, highlighting Ethereum’s transaction and storage role. However, after BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF success, Fink supports an Ethereum ETF.

Awaiting the SEC decision, does ETH hang in the balance? 

As the May 23 deadline approaches, the crypto community awaits the SEC’s decision, anticipating a potential milestone for Ethereum and bringing back investors’ faith in the regulatory body. If approved, Ethereum ETFs could significantly impact ETH’s price, similar to Bitcoin’s movements before BTC ETF approval. Seyffart suggests Ethereum’s value could surge, potentially reaching $4,000.

Notably, it is also suggested that ETH may face less selling pressure after ETF approval than BTC, given the smaller market share of Ethereum held by the Grayscale Ethereum Fund compared to the Grayscale Bitcoin Fund, with even fewer shares held by the FTX bankruptcy estate.