Don’t assume von der Leyen is coming back

7 months ago 2

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A second coronation does not come guaranteed for Queen Ursula.

Two months ahead of June’s Europe-wide election, Brussels is abuzz with European diplomats and officials warning that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is not a shoo-in for another five year term leading the EU’s executive.

One EU official called it the talk of the town.

“A big part of it is the arrogance of power,” the EU official continued. “She mistakenly thought she could get away with everything. So some smaller mistakes are now being used against her.” Like other officials quoted in this article, the EU official was granted anonymity to speak freely about the powerful German politician within the Brussels bubble.

At the heart of the matter, there are two prime forces that could torpedo her in the post-electoral horse-trading.

France — whose relations with Germany are rocky — is still highly ambiguous about its support, probably to extract concessions, though it could spy a late opportunity to rejig the top table. If she passes that potential hurdle of dissent from Paris, she will also have to worry about whether she can secure confirmation from the new-look European Parliament, in which the far-right is likely to be a larger player than today. Even the support from her own center-right European People’s Party looks lukewarm.

The prospect of an upset only seems to be growing after a series of a series of slip ups in recent weeks, stressed EU officials and diplomats. That’s quite a turn-around from the beginning of the year, when she had seemed rock solid.

“Von der Leyen’s periodic missteps, from Pfizergate to her trip to Israel, are taking on new meaning as we get closer to the election,” said Alberto Alemanno, a professor of law at HEC business school in Paris. “They acquire a pattern.”

“What this boils down to is that we are moving away from TINA – there is no alternative – to a situation which is more fluid, and where we are essentially opening Pandora’s box,” he added.

Still, the 65-year old von der Leyen is the woman to beat. Not only is she the incumbent, her EPP is polling way ahead of the competition, giving them the right — as they see it — to have von der Leyen stay on. It’s also hard to see which other candidate stands a chance of displacing her when EU leaders meet this summer to divvy up the bloc’s top jobs, such as European Commission, Council and Foreign Policy chiefs roles.

Still, as one EU diplomat stressed: “She should not take it for granted.”

So, what happened?

Two other officials pointed to the March party congress in Bucharest as a key turning point in the perception of von der Leyen.

In early March, European conservatives met in the Romanian capital to officially endorse the former German defense minister as the face of their EU election campaign. But some, like French conservative heavyweight Michael Barnier, refused to back her.

European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who hails from the competing liberals (but works under von der Leyen), publicly called out what he said was lackluster support received by von der Leyen from her own EPP group. The liberals are also part of the coalition backing von der Leyen in the European Parliament.

While von der Leyen was the only name on the EPP’s ballot that day in Bucharest to be its lead candidate and received 400 votes in favor, with 89 against — out of a total 499 votes, the perception was set.

Since then, there’s been mounting pushback against von der Leyen’s authority.

First, a cross-party initiative in the European Parliament — which included von der Leyen’s own EPP — legally challenged the Commission’s decision to grant Hungary €10 billion in EU money, which was frozen over the country’s rule of law issues.

Rule of law issues — a topic where the EPP is seen as weak — have been a point of contention between von der Leyen and the European Parliament, whose votes she needs for a second term.

Von der Leyen also faced an internal rebellion by four of her top commissioners — from the social democrat and liberal camps — after awarding a lucrative envoy role to European lawmaker Markus Pieper, who belongs to her German conservative party.

The so-called “Piepergate” affair came days after POLITICO revealed that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office had opened an investigation into her highly contentious (and maddeningly opaque) use of text messages to negotiate major vaccine purchase contracts during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In navigating these crises, she sometimes muscled aside her commissioners or national governments, leading to grumblings which can cost her when she has to be nominated again by European leaders (and then confirmed by the European Parliament.)

Meanwhile, von der Leyen herself has been slow to get her campaign going, clinging to the advantages of incumbency. She appointed her campaign team weeks after her nomination as lead candidate.

The choice of her campaign chief, her trusted right-hand Björn Seibert, who was her European Commission Chief of Staff until Apr. 5, led to renewed criticism in Brussels.

“This shows she can only rely on a very small circle of trusted people. It’s not a sign of confidence in her party,” said one senior parliamentary official who asked not to be named while commenting on Commission affairs.

Alexander Winterstein, the chief spokesperson of the von der Leyen campaign, stressed that von der Leyen has a double workload as president and as a candidate.

“Ursula von der Leyen has travelled to Greece, Germany and Latvia already on her campaign, with a lot more to follow,” Winterstein said. “She will campaign hard on the three issues she deeply cares about: democracy, prosperity and security. In particular, she will continue confronting head-on those who want to undermine European democracy, both from outside and within Europe. A lot is at stake in these elections.”

‘Lame duchess’

Of course, as a prime minister once noted, a week is a long time in politics.

With two months to go before the elections, von der Leyen has time to change the perception, for example, by touting her legacy. She has emerged as the most powerful Commission president since Jacques Delors, rolling out emergency measures to protect Europe through the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron, however, who was key to landing her the job in 2019, has been ambiguous in his support — in what seems a classic power move to have as much leverage as possible.

While Germany has no other choice than to back the former German defense minister for a second term — despite that her party is not part of the ruling coalition — France is playing hard to get.

In an interview with POLITICO, the head of French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew group in the European Parliament, Valérie Hayer, declined to endorse von der Leyen for a second term. “I won’t rule out voting for her again, I won’t rule out not voting for her again,” she said.

Several EU diplomats interpret the signals from Paris as a way to derive concessions from von der Leyen for her second term.

“The French don’t want Ursula walking on a red carpet with flowers thrown on her at the June European Council,” said another EU diplomat.

“The idea of a German Commission president who can do whatever she wants during a second mandate is a nightmare for them.”

Macron’s support is key for von der Leyen.

To win a second term, she will need to convince a qualified majority of EU leaders at the European Council table to back her. While she’s likely to get a nod from Europe’s 12 conservative leaders, it remains to be seen how much support she can rally beyond her party.

Hungary and Slovakia are highly critical toward the Commission’s policies, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly been at odds with the Berlaymont over the Israel-Hamas war. Von der Leyen’s resolute support for Israel triggered a backlash from Spain, Ireland, Belgium and voices across the European left.

The potentially fatal challenge however is set to be the European Parliament. In 2019, she was placed in office with the support of the EU’s self-described pro-European parties: the conservative European People’s Party, the Socialists and the liberal Renew group. That landed her only a narrow majority: 383 votes, slightly above the minimum of 374. With the far right surging across Europe, von der Leyen could struggle to repeat that win.

As of June 10, von der Leyen will have to start courting the newly elected European lawmakers to secure their votes. “She will be the object of huge pressure by lawmakers to win their support,” said a second EU official.

That risks limiting her room for maneuver during her second mandate, or even making her a lame duchess, a third EU official put it.

Meanwhile, her critics have started floating other names for European Commission president. Some hail from her own party, as they are set to hold the majority of seats in the European Parliament, such as European Parliament President Roberta Metsola or Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.

“We will enter the top job discussion with von der Leyen as European Commission President,” the first EU official said, the one who said von der Leyen thought she could get away with things.

“Whether she’ll still be there at the end, is another question.”

Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris.

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