Draghi should lead the European Council

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He tweets at @Mij_Europe.

The worst kept secret in Brussels is that Ursula von der Leyen will secure another five-year term as European Commission president.

Indeed, with Germany’s Christian Democratic Union nominating her as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) candidate for the upcoming European election in June, this outcome is all but inevitable. The EPP remains well ahead in the polls, expected to win roughly 176 seats compared to the socialists’ 138. And the party that places first will appoint the next Commission president.

More interesting than the Commission, however, is who EU leaders will choose to run the European Council — and what exactly that tells us about how serious Europe’s capitals are when it comes addressing the bloc’s priorities over the next five years.

After opting to run the EU’s foreign affairs High Representative portfolio for the last three mandates — first under the U.K.’s Cathy Ashton, then Italy’s Federica Mogherini and currently Spain’s Josep Borrell — the socialists are among those now eyeing the Council to deliver them more influence over EU affairs.

This shift is in part due to the fact that the High Representative’s influence has been gradually eroding over the last few years — not only because EU capitals jealously guard their sovereignty over foreign affairs, but because the Commission has become a much more important geopolitical player since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And with von der Leyen looking to make defense central to her next mandate, the trend is likely to continue.

So, as the socialists are likely to come second in the European election, this will give them the right to run the Council should they choose. But their bigger problem is the dearth of candidates available for the role.

Given that the position involves chairing discussions and forging consensus among EU leaders, this individual would need to be a sitting or former head of state. For the socialists, the credible names currently in the mix are former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. And a straw poll of well-informed senior EU officials conducted in Brussels last month named Costa as their front-runner.

This is not surprising. Not only did Costa successfully steer Portugal through the eurozone crisis, he also maintains good relations with all EU leaders — including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His two challenges, however, are the ongoing corruption investigation that forced him to resign (though he might be cleared of wrongdoing by June) and national elections that delivered a win for a center-right coalition in Portugal.

The latter doesn’t necessarily present a hard constraint, though. For instance, former center-right Commission President José Manuel Barroso (2004–2014) was supported by center-left Prime Minister José Socrates.

But despite Costa’s clear political and diplomatic strengths, there’s an arguably even more interesting name in the running: former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

In Brussels and EU capitals alike, there’s widespread recognition that the “Michel experiment”— referring to incumbent Charles Michel’s tenure — was a failure. This has led to a growing sense that the Council would be better led by a politician at the end of their political career — one who has stature, a clear European identity and, according to senior EU officials, “Won’t be driven by the daily headlines.”

What Draghi’s likely failure to secure the top job really suggests is that the EU’s 2024–2029 competitiveness, defense and geopolitical agenda won’t have the sharp teeth it otherwise could | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

Draghi’s profile would fit this bill, and it would help restore balance between the EU’s two most powerful institutions. As the saying in Brussels goes: When the relationship works well, the Commission has the power, the Council the authority.

But, as always, EU leaders won’t want to be overshadowed by someone with Draghi’s prominence. As a senior EU official who asked to remain anonymous said: “Draghi would control the agenda. But who would control Draghi?” 

The Italian politician’s other problem is that he’s politically unaligned, and in the tribal power-politics that dominates decision-making in Brussels, this is a severe handicap on his chances — especially as the socialists clearly want to lay claim to the Council for one of their own.

Yet, what’s seen as Draghi’s biggest disadvantage is what should cause the most concern — the substantive perspective he represents, especially his outspoken support for more EU common borrowing to address the geopolitical challenges Europe is confronting.

While the idea of more EU debt has been gaining ground in recent months, it will likely prove too much for Germany and other northern EU members. Indeed, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s name was in contention to run the Council in 2014, only to be vetoed by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for precisely this reason, paving the way for Donald Tusk to assume the role.

But what Draghi’s likely failure to secure the top job really suggests is that the EU’s 2024–2029 competitiveness, defense and geopolitical agenda won’t have the sharp teeth it otherwise could. Without a more credible financing plan — and given ongoing opposition to seizing Russian state reserves — there’s no clear answer as to how the bloc plans to help pay for Ukraine beyond 2027, the country’s eventual reconstruction, or more generally bolster the EU’s security and defense architecture in light of the challenge Russia poses.

Regarding competitiveness, for instance, the recent Antwerp declaration is effectively a rehash of existing EU goals — on net zero, security of raw materials, completing the single market and boosting innovation. These vague, repackaged commitments won’t deliver the competitiveness boost European economies so desperately need.

It was Draghi’s “whatever it takes” approach that saved the eurozone. And EU leaders should unleash that same spirit to counter the existential challenges the bloc is confronted by once more.