Erdoğan seizes geopolitical moment to snuff out democratic opposition

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has spent years eroding democracy, stifling dissent and purging the country’s army and civil service. Now, it looks as though he’s chosen this geopolitical moment to bury the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the secular founder of the Republic of Turkey.


How else to interpret the Islamist populist’s moves against the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was founded by Atatürk, and the incarceration of the party’s popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu — an opponent with a real chance of winning the next presidential election?

Erdoğan’s political rivals have little doubt this is exactly what the man who would be caliph is aiming to do — ditch what’s left of Turkey’s democracy by neutralizing the country’s main opposition and shift to full-bore autocracy.

As hundreds of police officers converged outside his home last week, İmamoğlu video-messaged his supporters: “We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged,” he said.

His detention came just a day after authorities shabbily revoked his university diploma — a move aimed to disqualify him as an electoral contender, as Turkish law requires presidential candidates to be university graduates. However, since formally removed from office, İmamoğlu still appears poised to win his party’s primary on Sunday to become Erdoğan’s main challenger in the next election.

From one perspective, the timing of his arrest was curious: Stripping İmamoğlu of his university credentials would have been sufficient to exclude him from running and, anyway, the presidential election isn’t due until 2028 — although there’s been chatter it could come sooner.

So, why move against him now and launch the arrests of 106 others, including officials from İmamoğlu’s CHP?

Some argue Erdoğan didn’t want to wait and allow the Istanbul mayor’s candidacy the opportunity to gain more steam. But Gönül Tol, author of “Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria,” suspects the explanation lies in what’s happening beyond Turkey’s borders: The Turkish leader likely felt emboldened by the unfolding geopolitical shift toward autocracy, and so felt this was an auspicious moment to strike.

“[U.S. President Donald] Trump’s anti-democratic actions at home have fueled a global climate where autocrats elsewhere feel empowered to further crush dissent,” she said.

Trump, who regularly calls for his political opponents to be locked up, is hardly likely to lecture Erdoğan, publicly or privately, over İmamoğlu’s incarceration. And in an interview with the MAGA-loyal Tucker Carlson last week, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff described a recent phone conversation between the two leaders as “great” and “transformational.”

So, why move against him now and launch the arrests of 106 others, including officials from İmamoğlu’s CHP? | Yasin Akgul/Getty Images

Admittedly, that was before İmamoğlu’s arrest, but the U.S. president has hardly taken pause himself, continuously striking at political foes since his inauguration. Visiting the U.S. Justice Department last week, he called his adversaries “scum,” “savages” and “Marxists,” before adding they’re “deranged” and “thugs” for good measure. It’s all in keeping with the vow of retribution he took at his first official campaign rally in Texas.

So, of course, Erdoğan would harbor no worries as to Trump’s disapproval. The two have lavished priase on each other for years, and the Turkish leader has said he supports his American counterpart’s peace initiative in Ukraine — no doubt music to Trump’s ears.

Erdoğan isn’t alone among the once embattled autocrats — and would-be autocrats — sniffing the change in the geopolitical air, and reckoning they’re on the cusp of a new era, able to erase the rules and norms of old and replace them with ones more to their liking. It’s influencing their behavior as they look to each other for inspiration and new ideas for running their respective countries — whether it be weaponizing policies affecting sexual minorities, scapegoating migrants, sharpening attacks on independent media, transforming public broadcasters into government mouthpieces or just closing them down.

And seemingly, they’re ready to giving each other a helping hand too. As Turkish authorities banned public gatherings and restricted public access to social media, Trump’s “best buddy” Elon Musk suspended Turkish opposition accounts on his platform.

The organizing principles once again seem to be that might is right and “great” leaders know best, as the era of liberal technocrats — which, of course, had its own problems — gives way to a new era of strongmen, utterly brazen in shaking off any restraints.

At times these strongman appear to be in an almost chummy rivalry, competing to be the most blatantly illiberal they can be. And in this friendly competition, Erdoğan is this week’s clear winner.

At the most recent Munich Security Summit, there was desperate effort to put on a brave face before the shifting tide. After the initial shock of U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech, which made no bones about stipulating Europe dance to the illiberal ideological tunes of his boss, there was an outward effort to carry on as if nothing had happened.

But on the margins, those opposed to illiberalism didn’t disguise their alarm. And one side-event saw liberal Scandinavian diplomats debating a rather disturbing question: Who will be on the winning side of history?

They didn’t have an answer — it looks like Erdoğan thinks he does.