ETH/BTC Price Analysis: Why ETH Price Can’t Break $3,500 Despite $1.1B ETF Volume

ETH price remained stagnant as the spot Ethereum ETFs began trading yesterday at 9:30 a.m. NJT. The total ETF traded volume surpassed $1.1 billion by the close of business yesterday, meeting speculation from ETF analysts.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price hovers around $65,800 just a day before the start of the Bitcoin conference 2024. Ethereum is weak against Bitcoin, trading at $3,440 at press time, potentially turning the ETF launch into a sell-the-news event.

ETH Price Seeks 4% Gains Ahead of Bitcoin Conference 

ETH price chart

The ETH/BTC price chart shows a downtrend from the peak in late May, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The chart indicates a potential falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish continuation pattern. Given the resistance zone around the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break below the lower trendline could confirm further downside.

If the falling wedge resolves to the upside, Ethereum price may gain against BTC and surge as high as 0.0545 BTC to test the upper trend line. A break higher may catapult the ETH price to 0.0574 BTC, which coincides with the next major resistance.

Conversely, if bears push the price lower, 0.0511 BTC presents a zone of robust resistance-turned-support. 

Ethereum price forecast shows the asset trending below the 50-day (0.0531 BTC) and 200-day SMA (0.0534 BTC), which provides immediate resistance for the asset pair.

The BTC price forecast Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 45, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias. The RSI 14-day SMA (yellow) is offering resistance, which may make Ethereum’s price slide lower as bullish momentum decreases. 

A volume spike accompanied the launch of Ethereum ETF trading on July 23. The price consequently increased by 3.71% but has retracted after meeting resistance at the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

Is Bitcoin Conference Upstaging Ethereum ETF Launch?

The spot Ethereum ETF received massive hype and speculation weeks before its launch. Grayscale is the largest ETH ETF, with $8.6 billion in net assets. 

However, data from SoSo Value shows Grayscale has had $484 million in outflows since the ETF launched. Nevertheless, the cumulative net inflow was a positive $106.78 million, cementing a successful first day of trading. 

According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, the first day of the 7 spot ETH ETFs had a total inflow of $107 million and a total trading volume of over $1.1 billion, of which BlackRock ETHA had an inflow of $266.5 million, Bitwise ETHW had an inflow of $204 million, and…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 24, 2024

The mediocre performance of Ethereum may be attributed to the upcoming Bitcoin 2024 conference. The confluence of market-impacting events may have interfered with the speculated impact of the ETF launch. 

Bottom Line

Despite the significant trading volume of over $1.1 billion in Ethereum ETFs, the ETH price has struggled to breach the $3,500 threshold. This suggests that high trading volumes don’t always translate directly into price increases. Following a successful first day of ETF trading, Ethereum price eyes a meager 4.2% against Bitcoin in the short term. 

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