Farnborough Airshow kicks off; Joe Biden drops out

SNEAK PEEK

— The Farnborough International Airshow starts today in the U.K. as the EU’s space program stutters.

— Tensions between Rome and outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg escalated over the weekend

— Plot twist in the French defense committee: Jean-Michel Jacques is the new president.

Good morning, and welcome to Morning Defense. In case you missed it, U.S. President Joe Biden announced Sunday he’s dropping out of the presidential race and is backing Kamala Harris to take his place — a historic decision that puts the 2024 U.S. election on a new course.

The immediate takeaway is that the Democrats now have a shot at keeping the White House. Donald Trump had been expected to win against an ageing opponent, but a younger rival might make his road back to the Oval Office more challenging.

For Europe, NATO and Ukraine — where officials were increasingly seeing a Trump victory as inevitable — hope springs anew that they will still be able to count on the U.S. after November.

In the coming days, however, expect Europeans to be urged to further grow military spending and to become more independent of the U.S. on defense regardless of who wins in November.

Read the first reactions of European leaders.

Tips to jbarigazzi@politico.eu, jposaner@politico.eu and lkayali@politico.eu and/or follow us at @jacopobarigazzi, @joshposaner and @LauKaya.

DRIVING THE DAY

FARNBOROUGH A GO: The Farnborough International Airshow (FIA) gets going today outside London — offering aircraft makers a chance to show off their wares and close mega deals with visiting military delegations.

It will also be an opportunity for new Labour PM Keir Starmer and his team to set out their vision for the national defense industry.

Up in smoke? A strategic review covering British defense spending has already begun, which could reportedly scupper the Global Combat Air Programme initiative with Italy and Japan. The three member countries are expected to have talks this week.

Wheels up: A large congressional delegation is in Farnborough, where the American army will be showing off 13 of its military planes, as the U.S. could rethink its Next Generation Air Dominance.

Who’s in: The likes of Airbus, Boeing, BAE, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Turkish Aerospace Industries and MBDA are all there as well.

The FIA runs through to Friday and Josh is on the ground. Full program here.

AGENDA

EU: Foreign ministers meet in Brussels for a Foreign Affairs Council.

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SPACE

IRIS2 SWITCH-UP: Airbus and Thales have dropped out of the SpaceRise consortium aiming to build and operate the EU’s best answer to SpaceX’s Starlink — a communications satellite constellation called IRIS². That almost certainly means massive further delays.

The two aerospace firms will instead help design the EU system as contractors, Airbus Defense and Space’s Michael Schoellhorn told Josh during a press briefing ahead of the FIA.

In his own words: “You need to be very careful with how much risk you take on board,” said Schoellhorn of the decision to exit the SpaceRise consortium, which will develop and operate IRIS² for 12 years.

“The two satellite makers in the consortium [Airbus and Thales] have come to the conclusion that our role is better placed not being like an operator … but [to] develop and deliver something on the ground.”

La Tribune originally reported on the trouble.

Timeline rethink: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton wants the network ready for 2027 and has repeatedly set final deadlines for SpaceRise to get its best offer in order so contracts can be signed. There’s no chance IRIS² will be beaming services this side of 2028, at the earliest.

Rob was right: Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck had earlier called for the IRIS² program to be suspended, arguing in a stern letter to Breton that costs were spiraling above €12 billion.

Although Brussels denied the program would cost that much, IRIS² will run into the low double-digit billions of euros, officials involved in the talks say.

Another way: An early SpaceRise plan, rejected by the Commission, was to use the OneWeb constellation to provide a first set of services under IRIS² and then slowly build that out over time. That proposal was rejected because EU officials didn’t want a non-European network in play. (The U.K. holds a stake in that system, but its manager, Eutelsat, is part of the SpaceRise consortium.)

This is how we beat Starlink: Developing IRIS² won’t really offer the EU a way to take on SpaceX anytime soon. But building a bigger European space giant would indeed offer that heft, Airbus bosses say.

“It is rather a small industry for the level of technology that is involved,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury on Sunday in London.

This time it’s different: The EU’s competition bosses have previously rejected plans to forge a railways titan with Siemens and Alstom, for example.

The hope is now that because the satellite business is global in nature, even the strongest anti-monopolist would agree that Europe needs a serious competitor to SpaceX, even if that means rolling together local players.

ROGUE RUSSIAN ROCKETS: Dump them in the ocean, let them rust in the rainforest, or … ship them back to Russia? At least two Soyuz-2 rockets remain at Europe’s spaceport in French Guiana after they were abandoned by Roscosmos in 2022.

With start-ups set to move in, the rockets need to be moved quickly.

Josh has the story.

NATO

ITALY VS STOLTENBERG: Tensions between Rome and outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg escalated on Sunday as Defense Minister Guido Crosetto attacked the alliance chief.

Two fronts: PM Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party voted last week against the confirmation of Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president; the Italian leader is now also opening a front at NATO. In a highly unusual move, Italy’s Ambassador to NATO Marco Peronaci wrote an angry letter last week questioning Stoltenberg’s suggestion of a new (non-Italian) special envoy overseeing the Mediterranean. 

Parting gift? NATO is expected to hand a new “southern neighborhood” role on Tuesday to Spanish diplomat Javier Colomina, NATO special envoy for the Caucasus and Central Asia. According to Italy, Colomina should not be appointed so close to Stoltenberg’s Oct. 1 end date. Meloni is one of the biggest advocates of a stronger focus on the Med, given migrant flows.

Scusi! “While recognizing that such appointments have been made according to Secretary General’s prerogatives, Italy observes that this strategic decisions are taken at the very end of your mandate and without proper consultation with the Allies,” the Italian envoy said in the letter, obtained by Stuart. Rome “learned about the timing of such decision with great surprise and disappointment.”

Appeal to Rutte: Peronaci sent incoming NATO chief Mark Rutte a copy of the letter. The hidden message was clear: He should rename an Italian to the role. “I am instructed by my Government,” Peronaci wrote Stoltenberg, “to notify that it is our understanding that, by referring [to what you called] “my Special Representative”, this appointment is to be considered as a temporary one, pending any decision that the incoming Secretary-General might want to take.”

Make no mistake: Such interventions — in black and white — are very rare, not just because Stoltenberg is seen as an authoritative figure steering the West’s boat even in the highly unpredictable Trump era. The North Atlantic Council, where the 32 ambassadors sit, is also a body that prioritizes consensus above all.

Betrayal! Crosetto pulled no punches with Stoltenberg. “He made me angry and there will be consequences in terms of personal relationships,” he said in an interview with La Stampa daily. “His act was a betrayal of a principle: It was Italy that had fought to introduce the role of envoy for the Southern front.” 

Vendetta: “Stoltenberg didn’t want to nominate a representative from the South. He had to put it in the resolution because Italy wanted it and so he took revenge by giving the role to a Spaniard,” Crosetto added.

PARLIAMENTS

PLOT TWIST IN FRENCH DEFENSE COMMITTEE: French lawmaker Thomas Gassilloud from Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party will not be returning as head of the National Assembly’s defense committee and will instead be replaced by Jean-Michel Jacques, also from the French president’s camp.

What happened: Jacques is a known figure: He was the rapporteur on France’s seven-year military planning law and used to be in the armed forces. On Friday he successfully challenged Gassilloud in an internal party vote, two officials told me. Next day he won the committee chairmanship against opponents from the National Rally and the left-leaning New Popular Front.

Top priority remains the same: Before the snap election, Jacques was supposed to lead the June review of the military planning law, so there’s no doubt the budgets of the armed forces will be one of the main items on his agenda.

Les Républicains lawmaker Jean-Louis Thiériot, who was reelected committee vice-president, said the “absolute priority” is to ensure military spending is not watered down. In the longer run, “we’ll need to think about the consequences of Trump’s likely election and the new configuration of the European Commission on our security architecture.”

Here’s the National Assembly’s new defense committee.

MEET THE PARLIAMENT’S NEW COMMITTEES: The final composition is here. According to a document obtained by our colleague Eddy, Polish Civic Platform MEP Borys Budka is set to chair the industry committee.

**Join us for POLITICO's Competitive Europe Week on October 1-3 in Brussels. Engage with key policymakers and industry experts as they discuss Europe's economic security, industrial policy, and the transformative power of AI in shaping the continent's future competitiveness. Apply for your pass now!**

EU COUNCIL

HUNGARY FIGHT: Foreign ministers will have a splitting headache to deal with at the FAC today: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s recent self-styled peace missions to Moscow and Beijing.

To go or not to go: European ministers are wondering whether to show up in Budapest Aug. 28-29 for an informal foreign affairs summit — known as a Gymnich meeting. After a lot of back and forth, top EU diplomat Josep Borrell will decide today on whether the Commission will attend after listening the ministers, a senior EU official told reporters.

Tightening the thumbscrews: Ministers will today — again — discuss the European Peace Facility’s €6.6 billion package, which is still being blocked by Hungary. No one expects Budapest to move, but “we continue to apply pressure on Hungary,” a senior EU diplomat said.

TWO PESCO PROJECTS AXED: The Council has ended the European
Union Force Crisis Response Operation Core (EUFOR CROC) and the European Medical Command (EMC), according to a decision published in the EU’s official journal, which also includes an updated list of all projects and members.

INDUSTRY

GERMANY SEEKS TO MODERNIZE DEFENSE INDUSTRY: Berlin is reportedly working on a “strategy paper” that could include faster approvals to build arms factories in the country.

UKRAINE, EUROPE REARMAMENT DRIVING SAAB’S GROWTH: That’s per the Swedish defense contractor’s CEO, Micael Johanson, in presenting the company’s earnings.

NATO’S REAPER DRONES CLUB: NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency, the U.K. and Belgium inaugurated the MQ-9 International Cooperation Support Partnership, which will foster interoperability and cooperation among users of MQ-9A and MQ-9B Reaper drones.

HYDIS CONTINUES: The second of four meetings devoted to user requirements took place in Paris last week.

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