French election: Le Pen threatens to clip Macron’s wings on Ukraine and defense

PARIS  — No matter how badly France’s impending snap parliamentary election goes for him, Emmanuel Macron was always meant to have the consolation that he would remain president until 2027 — with all the sacrosanct foreign policy and military powers that entails.

But his far-right adversary Marine Le Pen is signaling that, if her National Rally party wins the prime minister’s role, she won’t be content to let Macron chart the nation’s strategic course through the president’s prerogative, which would traditionally cover hot-button topics such as Ukraine, defense, diplomacy and choosing an EU commissioner.

This tussle over core competencies is firing furious debate within France and will strike terror into France’s partners in the EU and NATO about what looks likely to be a period of instability in the nuclear-armed nation of 68 million people. Assumptions from Washington to the Indo-Pacific that the president’s powers would simply be unchecked on the international stage after the election could prove ill founded.

France has been through periods of cohabitation before — when the president and prime minister hail from different parties — but this always involved fairly straightforward collaboration between parties with similar world views. This time around, a far-right prime minister — potentially Jordan Bardella from the National Rally, which is ahead in polls — would convulse the political order.  

On Wednesday, Le Pen gave the clearest indication yet she is hell-bent on clawing whatever shred of power she could get from the president if her party secured a strong enough majority in the parliamentary election.

In explosive remarks, Le Pen dismissed the French president’s title of commander-in-chief as “an honorary title,” and argued the real power, in particular over the budget, rested with the prime minister’s government.

“Jordan [Bardella] has no intention of picking a quarrel with Macron, but he has set red lines. On Ukraine, the president will not be able to send troops,” Le Pen said in an interview with the daily Le Télégramme.

Macron said earlier this month he was “finalizing” plans to send military trainers to Ukraine, and tensions over relations with Russia are likely to be front and center in the debate over France’s strategic direction.

While Macron has increasingly recast himself as a defender of Ukraine — promising fighter jets to Kyiv earlier this month — Le Pen has a long track record of political flirtation with the Kremlin, with Macron even directly accusing her of being on the Russian payroll.

Ahead of the first round of voting on Sunday, Le Pen is also upping the ante on EU policy after her party challenged Macron’s right to appoint France’s next European commissioner — a role conventionally seen as within the president’s gift.

European commissioner is a very important role for France, and Macron wants his candidate to secure a big economic portfolio that would allow Paris to put its priorities — such as bulking up European industrial champions — at the top of the EU agenda.

Macron is pushing for Thierry Breton, who has been pushing Macron’s vision on defense and industry, to continue as France’s commissioner, according to five officials.

Bardella, however, insists it would be for his government to choose France’s commissioner in Brussels, saying this week the appointment would be one of “the first decisions” they make.

If the National Rally does not get enough seats to form a government, it would still command what’s expected to be the largest group in parliament and be in a strong position to throw out government legislation it did not like.

Got a strong constitution?

On Thursday, Macron’s allies invoked the iconic World War II leader Charles de Gaulle, a former president and founder of the Fifth Republic, to hit back at Le Pen.

Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said “the constitution is not ceremonial” on X, and quoted de Gaulle on how the president “answers for France” and “answers for the Republic.” 

“You are profoundly challenging the Constitution,” added François Bayrou, leader of the French centrist party MoDem, allied to Macron.

Naturally, the devil is in the detail. According to the French constitution, the president is the head of the armed forces and is in charge of France’s foreign policy and the prime minister runs government, and therefore domestic policy. But a closer look at the separation of powers between president and prime minister offers a far more complicated picture. The budget, as Le Pen mentioned, is indeed a critical lever for exerting influence over many policy areas in the National Assembly.

“It’s super complicated, there is no clear boundary,” said Eric Landot, public law specialist. “The president is the chief of the armed forces, but Article 21 says the prime minister is responsible for national defense.”

According to Landot, Le Pen is wrong in saying the president’s role is only “ceremonial” — but there are many ways a prime minister can clip the president’s wings.

“If the president wanted to send soldiers to Ukraine on support missions, a government that disagrees with that policy, could block the government decrees and say: ‘No, I’m not signing that,'” said Landot.

“The constitutional ambiguity would block decision-making,” said Landot.

No holds barred

Since the election of dozens of National Rally lawmakers in the last parliamentary election, the far-right lawmakers have been far from wreckers, refraining from the filibustering and noisy heckling favored by the far-left France Unbowed party. At times, Macron’s centrists were embarrassed by National Rally MPs who regularly voted in favor of government bills. 

But as the hard right gets closer to power, the gloves are off.

Emmanuel Macron and France’s wannabe prime minister, Jordan Bardella, are already fighting over who will get to name the commissioner. | Pool photo by Dimitar Dilkoff via AFP/Getty Images

Europe, an area where the National Rally and Macron’s europhiles have polar opposite views about sovereignty, is set to become a central battleground.

Macron and France’s wannabe prime minister, Bardella, are already fighting over who will get to name the commissioner. Bardella has said his party he was “exploring” names to put forward.

And it’s not clear who gets the last word. According to EU treaties, it’s the ministers of the 27 EU countries who propose the list of commissioners, which would give Bardella a say. However, the commissioners need to be accepted by the president of the Commission and confirmed by the European Council, where Macron sits. 

On Macron’s role as commander-in-chief, Le Pen has since clarified she wasn’t “challenging the reserved domain” of the president.

She is, however, delivering a clear warning shot against an already-weakened president.