French election: What the hell is going on?

PARIS — France’s parliamentary election saw no clear winner, plunging the country in uncertainty and leaving everyone wondering who will be the country’s next prime minister.

Days after the vote, it’s still pretty much impossible to predict which way things will go. Still, you’re going to have to try. Whether you’re genuinely wondering what will happen next, or just want to look smart in case the topic comes up during a dinner conversation, we’ve got you covered.

Who won?

No party or coalition won enough seats (289) to claim an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the country’s lower chamber. As a consequence, nobody can propose the name of a prime minister with the assurance that they would get the support of a majority of lawmakers in a vote.

The left-wing New Popular Front alliance came in first, with 188 seats, followed by the centrist alliance of French President Emmanuel Macron, Ensemble, which won 161 seats. Both of these are coalitions of various parties. After triumphing at an EU election last month, the far-right National Rally ended up third (142 seats.) It is, however, the biggest single party.

Who picks the next prime minister?

The French constitution provides that Macron, as President, appoints the prime minister. But France’s next prime minister needs the support of a majority of lawmakers to rule the country.

The left-wing alliance placed first in the election and is claiming the right to propose the next prime minister and form a government.

France’s two previous prime ministers, Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal, both from Macron’s camp, have ruled the country even without an absolute majority in parliament. They both survived no confidence votes proposed by the opposition.

The parties that compose the winning left-wing alliance — France Unbowed, the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party — are currently holding talks to converge on a name for potential prime minister. After promising to find an agreement by the end of this week, they already made clear that they will need a bit more of time.

What could break the deadlock?

A coalition.

Several scenarios are on the table.

Macron wrote on Wednesday that he would only appoint a prime minister backed by a “solid, necessarily plural” coalition, which he called “a Republican front.” He also warned that this process would take “a bit of time.”

Some right-leaning heavyweights from Macron’s camp like Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin or former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe have warmed up to the idea of a coalition gathering the center and and MPs from the conservative Les Républicains.

Some right-leaning heavyweights from Macron’s camp like Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin have warmed up to the idea of a coalition. | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images

The left-wing alliance for the moment has not endorsed coalitions that would go beyond its own camp. But Macron’s camp is betting on internal division within the left-wing alliance, for instance between the more moderate socialists and the most radical from the France Unbowed movement.

Coalition negotiations are almost uncharted territory in France’s recent history as over the past 20 years parliamentary elections usually resulted in a clear majority and in governments from the same political camp as the president. Things got more complicated in 2022, when Macron lost an absolute majority in party. But his camp still had the biggest number of seats and he was still able to appoint prime minister from his own political camp.

What’s next?

Mark your calendar: from Thursday, July 18, things might start to look a bit clearer.

On that day, lawmakers will gather for the first time at the National Assembly and will vote to choose their next parliament president.

The president of the National Assembly plays a key role as they direct discussions and debates. But this time its election will be watched even more closely because that vote will give some first indications on whether some alliances are taking shape. That could give us an insight into how the French parliament will function in the future.

If an absolute majority (more than a half of voting MPs) of the National Assembly agree during the vote then, voilà, there is a president. If — as seems more likely — no candidate gets an absolute majority during the first two rounds of votes, whoever gets the most votes in a third vote will become president.

At that point, the left-wing New Popular Front should be able to elect someone from its ranks unless other groups converge on an alternative candidate — keep an eye on this, too, as it could reveal the existence of alternative alliances to form a government.