French prime minister hopefuls line up for post-Olympics race

2 months ago 1

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PARIS —Now that French Olympic stars like swimmer Léon Marchand, judoka Teddy Riner and fencer Manon Apithy-Brunet are heading home with gold medals, the focus in Paris is turning to another contest: The race to become prime minister.

The Olympics put French politics on pause, as President Emmanuel Macron vowed he would not appoint a new government to replace his caretaker ministers before the Games concluded.

Over the past two decades, the appointment of a new prime minister in France has been a decision with relatively few consequences, as the balance of power tipped heavily in favor of the president. It’s often a job that attracts little attention on the international stage.

But these are extraordinary times for France, facing an unprecedented moment of political instability. Choosing the right prime minister now really matters if the country is to be governable because Macron falls well short of a ruling majority in parliament.

From the Brégançon fort, the presidency’s vacation home on a private island on the French Riviera, Macron has been exploring his options and contemplating his timeline moving forward following his party’s defeat in this summer’s snap elections, which left France with a fractured legislature.

After a crushing defeat at the hand of the far-right National Rally during the June 9 European election, the French president took the political community aback by triggering early elections. While pollsters saw the far right as best-positioned to profit off of Macron’s political gamble, it was the New Popular Front (NFP), an ad hoc electoral alliance including the four main left wing forces in France, which secured an upset victory.

However, Macron is not acknowledging a straight win by the NFP. He argues it has secured too few seats in the new legislature to govern with stability and is instead calling for France to embark on coalition-building on the model of other European countries.

French daily Le Monde reported the president is looking for a consensus figure with appeal for both the left and the right; one who would give at least the impression of cohabitation — the balancing act in French government when the prime minister and president do not hail from the same party or coalition.

While a prime minister fitting that exact description will be hard to find, top executives within the pro-Macron coalition have insisted on the need to appoint a head of government who, at the very least, would not alienate potential partners on the center left and center right.

POLITICO walks you through the three likely scenarios.

Lucie Castets: The left-wing coalition’s candidate

Why? Lucie Castets is the only candidate who has officially thrown her name into the race so far. She is a high-ranking civil servant for the city of Paris.

Castets’ name was put forward by the the pan-left New Popular Front (NFP) — which includes the Socialists, Greens, Communists, and three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed movement — after it scored an upset victory in this summer’s snap parliamentary election. Castets helped the left rebuild its unity after a nearly a month of infighting over whom to put forward as prime minister.

Why not? Macron immediately rejected her bid and has insisted that “no one” won the snap elections — despite the left’s first-place finish and claim to victory.

The NFP holds 193 seats in the French lower house, making it the largest coalition. But that falls significantly short of the 289-seat absolute majority needed to govern without running the risk of being toppled by a motion of no confidence.

Castets — who is unknown to the general public and has no prior experience in politics — has refused to fold. She’s engaged in a media blitz, held talks with union leaders, and staged trips across France. Her goal: To maintain relevance and apply mounting pressure on Macron to appoint her.

“I ask the president to take responsibility and appoint me prime minister,” Castets said in an interview with radio station France Inter. “This denial of democracy, by refusing to recognize the political group that came out on top in the elections, is egregious.”

Chances of becoming France’s next prime minister:

Bernard Cazeneuve: A former socialist to lure social democrats

Why? With the left finishing ahead in the parliamentary election but Macron refusing to acknowledge the NFP’s legitimacy to govern, one possible solution would be to appoint a prime minister from the left — but outside the NFP.

One name which matches this description has emerged: Bernard Cazeneuve, who served as prime minister at the end of François Hollande’s presidency, from December 2016 to May 2017 — the shortest tenure in modern French history.

Cazeneuve has made public his openness to return to Matignon, the prime minister’s residence. “I have never refused to put wisdom where there is folly. If it has to be done in a collective way, I’m always prepared to do that,” he said in July.

By naming Cazeneuve, the hope would be to attract the more moderate fringes of the NFP, such as those hailing from the Socialist Party.

Why not? It is unclear whether Cazeneuve’s appointment would satisfy enough left-leaning lawmakers to prevent a motion of no confidence.

Cazeneuve left the Socialist Party in 2022 in opposition to an alliance struck with France Unbowed, which holds the most seats of any leftist party. His new political vessel, La Convention, failed to garner momentum or attract support from heavyweight leftist lawmakers.

Chances of becoming France’s next prime minister:

Xavier Bertrand: A conservative in a right-of-center coalition

Why? If the left maintains its united front, the pro-Macron alliance could try to rely on a more likely coalition partner: the center right.

Macron’s allies have already done it once this summer. When lawmakers in July voted for a new president of the National Assembly — the fourth-highest-ranking official in French politics — the conservative Republican Right group reached an agreement with the pro-Macron coalition to back incumbent Yaël Braun-Pivet in exchange for key positions in the French lower house’s organization.

Amid speculation over whether Macron will to nominate a prime minister from the right, one name has come up more often than others: Xavier Bertrand.

A former health and labor minister under the presidencies of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, Bertrand has been the head of the northern region of Hauts-de-France since 2016. He has successfully pushed back against a far-right surge there, despite its transformation into a stronghold for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in recent years.

Bertrand is “ready to take up the challenge,” according to a person close to him quoted by the right-wing daily Le Figaro. The Bertrand option has also received backing from within the pro-Macron ranks, including from outgoing Minister for Gender Equality Aurore Bergé.

Why not? Any alliance including only the centrist and right-wing blocs would barely edge out the New Popular Front, making it equally vulnerable to motions of no confidence. Together, the pro-Macron coalition and Republican Right group total 213 seats — just above the NFP’s 193.

Chances of becoming France’s next prime minister:

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