Georgia: The next domino to fall in the Kremlin’s undemocratic direction

Laura Thornton is the senior vice president of democracy at the German Marshall Fund. She was based in Georgia from 2014 to 2020 as the head of the National Democratic Institute.

Last week, my husband and I awoke to messages from my stepson about how he was tear-gassed by riot police during protests in Tbilisi, Georgia.

He, and many others, have been in the streets every night for two weeks, peacefully expressing their opposition to a new foreign agents law being crammed through parliament by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, as opposition MPs have been forced out of the committee considering the draft.

This law closely mirrors Russia’s foreign agents law, which significantly curtailed civil society organizations receiving money from the U.S. and Europe, labeling them as “foreign agents” even if their work is charitable, development-related or educational. In addition to the stigma of such a label, the law would enable the government to conduct investigations into these NGOs, access personal data, demand detailed reporting, and levy restrictions, fines and prison sentences on media and civic groups deemed noncompliant.

The important point here is that the law specifically identifies countries that have historically been Georgia’s Western allies and friends as adversaries, while notably not mentioning Russia — the country physically occupying a quarter of Georgia, creeping its occupation foot by foot, and consistently exerting malign influence on the country’s politics and people through financial, technological and disinformation operations.

Georgia’s government has made it clear it has flipped the script, swapping friends and foes. This is why my stepson and so many other Georgians, who fervently believe their country’s future lies with the EU and NATO, have taken to the streets.

But this is the Georgian government’s second attempt to pass this law — and this time, it’s determined to see it through.

In March last year, the same legislation was met with the same fury as it has been today. But at that time, EU candidacy status was dangling in front of the GD government as an enticing carrot. Faced with strong condemnation from the EU, the U.S., the European Court of Human Rights and the public, the government backed down. But while Georgia was rewarded with EU candidacy later that year, it was clear — as I wrote at the time — this was not over.

The important point here is that the law specifically identifies countries that have historically been Georgia’s Western allies and friends as adversaries. | Vano Shlamov/AFP via Getty Images

Mere moments after the GD government backed off the law, then party chair and current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said the protests were a “liberal fascist campaign” driven by “LGBT propaganda.” Meanwhile, then Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili accused civil society of being “anarchists” carrying out the wishes of the “global war party” — referring to the U.S. and EU member countries.

But two things were different in 2023 than they are today: First, this is an election year. And like aspiring autocrats the world over, the GD government understands that the oversight civil society organizations provide — particularly through election observation — could expose election malfeasance and undermine the legitimacy of their possible victory. The new law would help kneecap these efforts.

Second, while the GD government has been inconsistent in its foreign policy messaging for years, I believe it has finally picked its trajectory — and it’s not Westward. EU membership is not only a long way off, but the reforms demanded for membership could also threaten the party’s grip on power. Truly free and fair elections, an impartial judiciary, rule of law, robust and free civil society and media, clear delineations between civil servants and political appointees, protections for marginalized communities, and transparent and accountable security forces — these might not be part of the playing field that would continue to bring the party victory.

Look no further than the litany of insults Georgian leaders have hurled at the U.S. and Europe — its supposed allies — over the past two weeks, and then consider the lavish praise Russian leaders — the presumed adversary — have been bestowing upon the Georgian government.

As one ruling party MP clearly stated, “The EU is not the point” and Georgia shouldn’t join a body that is immoral. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kobakhidze essentially called the U.S. an enemy and a liar, claiming it had attempted two “revolutions” in Georgia. Notably, this is similar to the Kremlin line accusing the West of fomenting protests, with Russia’s Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev suggesting there was a “well-known Hollywood hand” involved.

And while one Russian military blogger summed the situation up by saying Westerners and LGBTQ+ “structures” are attempting a Maidan and trying to stop the law that would “cut off oxygen to the Western pup,” Kremlin insider Alexander Dugin declared the Georgian government “is on the right track.”

Georgia is the cautionary tale many of us have been calling out for years, but it has fallen on deaf ears. Those of us who have worked as democracy practitioners around the world know the warning signs of decline, and we flagged Georgia a decade ago. Illiberalism is the gateway to autocracy, and as we’ve seen from Hungary and Poland to Turkey and India, there’s a clear first act to this agenda.

For instance, declaring war on the LGBTQ+ community and cloaking these attacks in the words of “religious preservation” and “tradition.” Georgia codified heterosexual marriage in its constitution in 2016 — a pure communications ploy, as same-sex marriage was already illegal by law.

Georgia is the cautionary tale many of us have been calling out for years, but it has fallen on deaf ears. | Giorgi Arjevanidze/AFP via Getty Images

Next comes the attempt to drive women out of public life through a litany of sexualized threats, often carried out by state security services or police, and measures to decriminalize domestic violence. For example, releasing video recordings of female leaders’ and activists’ personal lives is an effective tactic to force women out of the public sphere — and Georgia outperformed itself in this arena.

My first years in Georgia were marked by the release of secretly recorded explicit videos of women politicians and journalists, used to shame and push them out of public life. And to put the nail in the coffin, just last month, the GD government removed quotas for women in parliament, with misogyny transparently front and center in the decision. One GD MP shouted at his female colleagues: “F*ck you, you herd of un-f*cked females, this syndrome of un-f*cked women.”

Then, there are the attacks on immigrants and people of color, which in Georgia’s case includes Turks, Muslims and ethnic Azeri communities. These are all designed to reaffirm the traditional pecking order, with privileged white, Orthodox Christian men on top, wielding the most power.

The autocratic playbook also importantly includes attacks on independent media, civil society and independent institutions that serve as a check on the government. Again, Georgia has excelled here, dispensing punitive measures against media, attacking the Ombudsman, calling NGOs “enemies” and fascists, and now passing this foreign agents law

This trajectory will be difficult to reverse.

Georgia has already jumped on the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) train, embracing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other European darlings of illiberalism. Kobakhidze spoke at CPAC in Hungary just last month, praising Orbán’s leadership, saying liberals needed to be sledgehammered, demanding an end to “LGBTQ propaganda” and blaming the U.S. and Europe for it all.

In response, the U.S. and the EU must be careful not to deliver exactly what the GD government wants. Cutting back on aid — particularly to civil society — could result in the closure of important democratic organizations on the ground. Rather, they should consider surgical cuts to the Georgian government, joint exercises and other bilateral support. Furthermore, sanctions are needed against lawmakers and government leaders supporting this law, as well as for former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili — the Russian oligarch who continues to be the power behind the governing party.

We need to react more swiftly, before more dominoes fall in the Kremlin’s undemocratic direction. It’s important to heed the early warning signs of illiberalism — and not wait until children are gassed in the streets.