Germans gear up for war with more paperwork

BERLIN — Fearful of Moscow, Germans will soon be asked to prepare the nation for war. First, though, they’ll have to fill out a questionnaire arriving by post.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius unveiled a blueprint for a bureaucracy-heavy return to national military service Wednesday in response to forecasts that Russia could reconstitute its forces within five years to launch a fresh European offensive.

The Pistorius plan, which is now being studied by lawmakers and the minister’s coalition partners, will ask all 18-year-old men — planners anticipate 400,000 annually — to fill out a questionnaire. Of that total some 40,000 will be chosen to undergo a medical exam, with 10,000 subsequently cleared for basic training.

Pistorius wants to move quickly and have at least 5,000 fresh troops signed up next year, but rather than rushing bodies into active service, he proposes first to whip the state into shape to be able to hire, train and house recruits at scale.

“It’s a start,” Pistorius said modestly of his plan, which will cost €1.4 billion initially. “We’re setting up the recruitment processes for increasing our troop size.”

When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s the Bundeswehr numbered some 500,000 troops in addition to reservists; three decades later, the ranks of full-time soldiers have dwindled to just over 180,000.

Part of the decline owes to the decades of relative peace that followed the Cold War, but poor conditions have also been to blame, Eva Högl, an MP from Pistorius’ Social Democrats who serves as parliamentary coordinator for the armed forces, said earlier this year.

Högl put the cost of upgrading Germany’s military infrastructure such as barracks at around €50 billion, which is half the €100 billion fund the government made available to buy new military gear last year.

To get the ball rolling, Pistorius dodged the need to amend the constitution, a time-consuming process, by making the proposal optional for women. His plan will still have to be scrutinized by the Bundestag, however, as well as by Germany’s increasingly fractious ruling coalition.

In a positive signal, Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats said Pistorius’ proposal was a move in the “right direction.” However, the two men have been at odds over plans to boost defense spending.

Equal opportunities

Figuring out a way to return the country to national service — which was phased out in 2011 — has been on the agenda for months.

Pistorius, who is unusually popular for a German defense minister, gave his ideas a public airing during a May trip to the United States. The previous month, mandarins in the Bendlerblock, as the defense ministry complex is known, had tabled three scenarios, from doing nothing to launching full mandatory conscription.

Figuring out a way to return the country to national service — which was phased out in 2011 — has been on the agenda for months. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The middle option — a Scandinavian-style selective system of mustering — was ultimately chosen.

While Germans generally support a return to national service, the plan hasn’t escaped controversy, especially its underlying math. Pistorius has committed to boosting the army’s headcount to 203,000 by 2031, while his ministry said Wednesday an additional 260,000 reservists would be needed to adequately defend the eastern flank.

Even if the new conscription plan launches this year, the government is unlikely to muster those numbers anytime soon. “It’s hard to say when we can close that gap,” Pistorius admitted.

One high-ranking German officer, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters without authorization, said 272,000 troops would be needed to credibly defend the country’s borders, and that the model Pistorius has proposed won’t yield anywhere near that total.

There’s also the question of setting up a system with an emphasis on men.

Although the Bundeswehr has a 20 percent quota for women, it’s a long way from that target with only 24,000 female soldiers (13 percent) and only two combat units led by women.

Changing the constitution to include women in Pistorius’ conscription plan would take time and cost political energy to push through, the minister said.

But even if time and energy were not in such short supply, women are unlikely to be clamoring for German army jobs. The Bundeswehr remains a hostile place for female recruits, with reported sexual misconduct incidents increasing in 2023 to 385 from 224 in 2020.