Historical Cycle Data Suggests Bitcoin Is Out Of The Danger Zone — Is Return To $73,000 Imminent?

Bitcoin has officially left the post-halving “danger zone” where there is a possibility of a drop below its range low, and is now headed for reaccumulation, according to a popular crypto strategist citing historical data. 

The Bitcoin price recently experienced a retracement and currently hovers around $69,000 despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) eventual approval of several spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With Bitcoin escaping the danger zone, will the preeminent crypto resume its upward movement soon, or is a deeper correction still likely?

Bitcoin’s Sideways Trading To Continue For Several More Weeks: Analyst

On May 24, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital posted an update on X, noting that the classic Bitcoin “danger zone” when the asset corrects after the quadrennial halving event is now behind us.

The post-halving danger zone has happened in prior market cycles when the asset corrects after a block subsidy halving, as per Rekt Capital. After the danger zone is over, Bitcoin historically enters a reaccumulation phase when it moves sideways within a tight range. This suggests that further pullbacks during the period of sideways chop that often follows the halving could still be on the cards.

“Since the Bitcoin post-halving ‘danger zone’ ended, Bitcoin broke out to $71,500. However, ~$71,500 is where the range high resistance of the macro re-accumulation range is and this is where Bitcoin rejected from,” Rekt Capital wrote. “The consolidation continues and history suggests it will continue for several more weeks between $60,000 and $70,000.”

Rekt Capital further observed that based on historical behavior, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound below $70,000 until September.

“Historically, Bitcoin has always rejected from the range high on the first attempt at a breakout after the halving. Moreover, history suggests this re-accumulation should last much longer. Bitcoin tends to break out from these re-accumulation ranges only up to 160 days after the halving. That would translate to a Bitcoin breakout from the re-accumulation range only in September 2024.” 

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

In this cycle, Bitcoin dipped by over 20% from its $73,737 all-time high in mid-March to around $56,780 on May 1, marking the potential bottom of the post-halving danger zone period. 

On May 21, Bitcoin’s price briefly topped the psychologically important $70K mark; however, it swiftly dropped to around $67,000. BTC has now recovered and is trading back to $69,176 at press time, bolstering the return to the reaccumulation zone analysis.

Although the flagship crypto appears stuck in sideways price action, industry pundits remain uber-bullish. For instance, veteran crypto market commentator Tom Lee said his base case for Bitcoin by the end of the year is $150,000.