How pollster Nate Silver's claim about JD Vance being venture capitalist Peter Thiel's 'worst' political bet turned out to be wrong?

A resurfaced video shows Nate Silver and Ezra Klein discussing Peter Thiel's political bets, particularly focusing on JD Vance. They speculated that Vance might be Thiel's worst political bet. However, Vance's vice-presidential win alongside Trump's victory challenges their claim, highlighting Thiel's successful investment in Vance's political journey.