How Trump Republicans really feel about NATO

Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s Across the Pond column. Dina Smeltz is vice president for Public Opinion and Foreign Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

For the past week, Americans and Europeans alike have been in a frenzy about U.S. President Joe Biden’s uneven and rambling debate performance, questioning whether the 81-year-old is fit to serve another four years.

But while that is a legitimate worry, it shouldn’t obscure the even more concerning things former President Donald Trump had to say about America’s role in the world — especially when it comes to Europe’s security.

Trump has repeated his refrain that had he been in charge, Russian President Vladimir Putin — who had admitted to Trump his “dream” of taking over Ukraine — wouldn’t have started the war in the first place. He also claimed that, once elected, he would “have that war settled” before his inauguration.

As usual, though, he didn’t spell out how exactly he would do this. Except that he sort of did.

Trump pointed out that unlike Europe, the U.S. was separated from Ukraine by an ocean, and that it was time for Europeans to pay the bill for their neighbor. A statement that suggests he would cut future aid to support Ukraine’s war effort, military or otherwise.

And despite the outcry prompted by his earlier declaration that Russia “could do whatever the hell it wants” to NATO countries that were “delinquent” on defense spending, Trump repeated the claim once more, suggesting that the U.S. commitment to NATO was no longer ironclad. Asked by Biden whether he would withdraw from NATO, the former president just shrugged.

For America’s friends — as well as for the many Americans who believe in alliances and NATO’s importance — these are deeply disquieting statements — particularly as NATO’s 32 national leaders start to gather in Washington next week to celebrate the 75th anniversary of history’s most successful military alliance.

It also raises the important question of what Americans actually think about NATO and alliances — and on that front, the news is more comforting. Surveys conducted by the Chicago Council over the past years have shown that Americans do value alliances, with nine in 10 Americans saying military alliances are an effective approach to achieve U.S. foreign policy goals, and that they benefit both the U.S. and allied states.

Indeed, a new Chicago Council poll conducted by Ipsos, and reported here for the first time, shows that nearly 8 in 10 Americans either want to strengthen current U.S. alliances (34 percent) or expand them (44 percent) — even if this means additional security commitments. In fact, fewer than two in 10 Americans say the U.S. should reduce or withdraw from alliances with other countries.

The new survey is equally salutary when it comes to NATO specifically. Two-thirds of all Americans say NATO “is still essential to U.S. security” — virtually the same as it was in 2002, when we first asked this question. Our polling also shows that an even larger majority of Americans (78 percent) say the U.S. should maintain or increase its commitment to NATO — again, virtually unchanged since 2002.

As for Trump’s statement that he wouldn’t defend allies that don’t spend enough, most Americans believe such threats are unproductive. When asked whether the U.S. should use persuasion and diplomacy while maintaining its defense commitments as most presidents have done — or withhold that commitment until allies spend more — as Trump proposes to do — Americans favor the former by nearly two-to-one (62 percent versus 34 percent).

Finally, a majority of Americans (52 percent) believe that NATO cooperation between the U.S. and Europe makes the U.S. safer, outstripping those who think cooperation makes the country less safe by five-to-one. Meanwhile, about a third (35 percent) think it makes no difference.

All these polling results should give America’s allies some comfort. Despite its deep polarization, it seems Americans as a whole remain committed to strengthening alliances and supporting the U.S. commitment to collective security.

All these polling results should give America’s allies some comfort. | Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

That said, the data does point to a disquieting trend among Republicans, notably the sliver of the American public that has a “very favorable” view of Trump — 15 percent of the overall population, but 54 percent of all self-described Republicans — as on these issues, they’re increasingly at odds with the overwhelming majority.

Currently, only 52 percent of Trump Republicans — compared to 71 percent of other Republicans and 83 percent of Democrats — believe NATO is “essential” to U.S. security. And rather than using diplomacy, Trump Republicans prefer withholding the U.S. commitment to defend allies in order to boost their defense spending, with a response rate of 58 percent in favor versus 39 percent against — that’s compared to 32 percent versus 65 percent among other Republicans, and 18 percent versus 79 percent margin among Democrats.

Moreover, only a third (35 percent) of Trump Republicans believe NATO cooperation makes the U.S. safer, as opposed to nearly half (48 percent) of other Republicans and two-thirds (65 percent) of Democrats.

So, there is, indeed, cause to be worried. Like much the state of American politics itself, support for NATO — and alliances more generally — though solid overall, is becoming increasingly polarized. And this trend is bound to be concerning for allies, which have long seen their security interlinked with that of the U.S.