How will global temperature change in five years?

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A report by the World Meteorological Organization revealed that the temperature will exceed the pre-industrial Renaissance level by 1.5 degrees during the next five years.

According to the report, published on the organization’s website: “It is 80 percent likely that the global average annual temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. This is a serious warning against “We are getting closer to the goals set in the United Nations Charter and in the Paris Agreement documents, which indicate that temperatures will rise over decades, not from one to five years.”

According to the organization's forecasts, the average surface temperature in the world during the years 2024-2028 will be 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than it was in the years 1850-1900, and there is an 86 percent probability that at least one annual temperature record will be recorded. As is known, 2023 is currently considered the warmest year ever.

It is noteworthy that the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted on December 12, 2015 by 175 countries, including the United States of America, China and Russia.

According to the organization's forecasts, global temperatures may reach record levels in the next five years, due to human activity - greenhouse gas emissions, and the natural factor - the change in the phases of ocean currents from the La Niña phenomenon to the El Niño phenomenon, because this phenomenon affects the average temperature over The ground as well as the rainfall pattern as well.

The peculiarity of the phase change of the currents, which began in the summer of 2023, is that during the La Niño phenomenon, heat is transferred from the atmosphere intensively to the ocean, while during the El Niño phenomenon, on the contrary, heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere.