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10 months ago
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ARTICLE AD BOX
Bitcoin ETF : The SEC is on the brink of approving a first spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. after 10 years of failed applications.
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Opinions on what will happen in the crypto market if the SEC approves a spot bitcoin ETF are mixed.
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Some analysts say predictions of a huge influx of investment are overdone.
This week marked the 15th year since the first block, the genesis block, was mined on the Bitcoin blockchain. For more than 10 of those years, industry stalwarts have pleaded with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), an instrument that’s predicted to open the floodgates to a wave of institutional investment.
So far, the SEC has rejected every application, but that may be about to change. Analysts are predicting that at least one of the more than a dozen current proposals will be approved as early as Friday.
Opinions on what will happen in the crypto market if approval is granted are mixed.
Gabor Gurbacs, the director of digital assets strategy at VanEck, said that while a spot Bitcoin ETF will create “trillions in value” over the long term, people tend to “overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs,” and initial flows will equal only “a few hundred million of (mostly recycled) money.”
Other analysts say approval will require ETF issuers to purchase tens of billions dollars of bitcoin to satisfy the institutional demand, leading to a radical shift in the supply and demand dynamics. Some analysts even predict a “supply shock” after exchange balances fell to a five-year low in October. A lack of bitcoin on exchanges suggests holders are storing it in their personal wallets, a sign they’re less inclined to sell.
Analysis of flows into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the first spot gold ETF in the U.S., which debuted in 2004, is informative. GLD amassed $1.9 billion in inflation-adjusted terms in its first four weeks, with the tally rising to $4.8 billion by the end of the first year, according to crypto exchange Coinbase. The ETF currently has $57.37 billion in total assets.
Going back further in time, Invesco’s QQQ, an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 index of some of the world’s most innovative companies, was launched in March 1999, a year before the dotcom bubble burst. The fund saw inflows of $847 million ($1.6 billion in today’s dollars) in the first 30 days.
Read more: What is Solana?
And closer to home, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), based on bitcoin futures, amassed around $1.5 billion in inflation-adjusted terms in the 30 days after its introduction in October 2021, when sentiment across crypto asset classes was uber bullish. As of Thursday, the fund held $1.65 billion in total assets.
BITO, which invests in regulated CME futures rather than actual cryptocurrency, is exposed to rollover costs. The fund has, nevertheless, closely tracked bitcoin’s spot price since inception and been a viable option for people looking for exposure to bitcoin without the ownership and storage hassles.
English (US)