In Nicolas Schmit, does Ursula von der Leyen have a challenger or a running mate?

BRUSSELS — It’s not like Nicolas Schmit isn’t trying.

Schmit, the lead candidate for the socialists in the EU election, is traveling all over Europe to get the center-left message across. At one campaign rally after another, the 70-year-old European commissioner for jobs and social rights is harnessing support for socialist candidates in the EU Parliament election and — in principle — for his own bid to become the next European Commission president.

In theory, Schmit is gunning to replace Ursula von der Leyen as the Commission chief. In practice, he has little chance of doing that.

Not only does von der Leyen have the advantage of already being in office, she is also widely known across the EU, said Sophia Russack of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a think tank.

Either way, the political practice is that the Commission presidency goes to the party with the most seats in the European Parliament. “For that reason, already the EPP is very likely to get the post,” Russack said.

Beyond socialist headquarters, it’s hard to find anyone who believes Schmit, an unknown Luxembourgish politician, has any real chance of winning. 

Schmit even needs von der Leyen for his own political survival, as his party is no longer in the governing coalition of Luxembourg. 

In one of his first interviews after being nominated as socialist lead candidate, Schmit told POLITICO why attacking von der Leyen was difficult for him. 

“I cannot go out and say: well, you know, I was a member of a club, which finally I would not have liked to be a member [of]. It’s not serious. I have endorsed the policies of this Commission.”

So is he her challenger? Or her running mate? 

It’s unclear: First, his Party of European Socialists likely won’t finish ahead of her European People’s Party. Second, he hasn’t exactly set pulses racing at debates. Third, von der Leyen is his boss and he doesn’t seem keen on upsetting her. And finally, the socialists don’t want to be cast aside as the EPP’s most trusted partner in Brussels. 

And Brussels insiders have taken note.

In theory, Schmit is gunning to replace Ursula von der Leyen as the Commission chief. In practice, he has little chance of doing that. | POOL photo by Andreas Gora/Getty Images

An EU official, close to the socialists who was granted anonymity to speak freely, said so far not many have been impressed by the party’s candidate. The official said that, in a party chat commenting Schmit’s performance during a recent debate there were jokes about how poorly it went: first one of the participants commented that he “wanted him to say something leftwing, then someone else replied that, actually, if he had just said something, anything, that could have been enough” the official said.

The socialists are, of course, adamant that Schmit is a viable option. They are the second biggest group in the European Parliament, with POLITICO’s Poll of Polls predicting them to get 145 seats out of 720 (the number of MEPs is going up from 705 in the next Parliament), with the EPP getting 175. 

“Polls are there to be challenged, and this is what we are doing,” said Giacomo Filibeck, the secretary-general of the Party of European Socialists. 

Race for top jobs

What the socialists really aim for is not the Commission chief job. That’s too far of a stretch. What is more attainable is the leadership of the European Council, currently held by the liberal Charles Michel, and an executive vice-president of the Commission with a strong portfolio. Those are the prizes within reach.

To get those, a good relationship with von der Leyen by way of a harmless, not real, competitor is critical. 

So far, Schmit hasn’t really managed to get away from the idea that von der Leyen is his boss, said Russack of the Centre for European Policy Studies, especially in comparison with French Commissioner Thierry Breton, who has publicly questioned the support for von der Leyen from within her own party. 

Throw in the good working relationship between von der Leyen and Schmit and you can see why the Maastricht debate wasn’t exactly a bloody fist fight.

There’s another, more personal, element to this. Schmit’s political fate depends on von der Leyen staying in the Commission. The Luxembourgish government agreed to send the EPP’s Christophe Hansen as its next commissioner, because the socialists are no longer part of the Grand Duchy’s governing coalition. 

The only chance for Schmit to stay on as European commissioner after the election (or have much of a political future at all), is if von der Leyen calls Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Luc Frieden and promises the small country a bigger portfolio if Schmit is allowed to stay in Brussels.

Some in Schmit’s entourage downplay this personal element. They argue that he has had a long career in politics and, at 70, would be perfectly fine to take a step back.

Others, however, point to the “political animal” in Schmit, who is unlikely to throw in the towel unless he really has to.

Turn left or right?

In next week’s political debates, Schmit will need to do better than last month’s Maastricht debate where he neither showcased socialist priorities nor presented any real challenge to von der Leyen.

Schmit even needs von der Leyen for his own political survival, as his party is no longer in the governing coalition of Luxembourg. | Ida Marie Odgaard/EPA-EFE

During that debate, there was only one clear point Schmit was able to press von der Leyen on: her potential cooperation with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, whose members include Italy’s right-wing Brothers of Italy and Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party, which has tangled with Brussels over the rule of law.

Since then, the socialists have continued to corner von der Leyen on this point, issuing a declaration signed by socialist leaders from across Europe. 

If von der Leyen ends up needing extra votes for her coronation in Parliament, the socialists want her to look to the left — the Greens — rather than the right. In exchange for their votes, the Greens will ask von der Leyen to stay on track of green ambitions, double down on social policy amid the green transition, and uphold the rule of law across Europe. The socialists will be more than happy with that.

“This campaign is about the future of Europe in one of the most crucial moments of our recent history,” Filibeck said. “I would like to elevate … the discourse, to the level needed for the quality of this debate.”

Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.