Incursion into Russia could spell doom for Kiev – military expert

Ukraine is unable to defeat Moscow through “conventional means” and is employing increasingly risky strategies, Gustav Gressel believes

Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Region across the border in Russia is a risky gamble that could backfire and lead to a major defeat and a loss of Western support, Gustav Gressel, a former Austrian Defense Ministry official, has told Der Spiegel.

Kiev’s forces launched a major cross-border operation in Kursk Region earlier this week. Clashes in the border areas have been ongoing since last Tuesday. The Kremlin called Kiev’s move a large-scale provocation and accused Ukrainian troops of indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The Russian Defense Ministry has stated on multiple occasions that Ukrainian attempts to penetrate deeper into the region have been thwarted. Nevertheless, Kiev’s troops are still present in some border settlements in Kursk Region where heavy fighting continues, according to the ministry. Gressel, who is currently a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, described Kiev’s actions as a “risky strategy.” 

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“If Ukraine wants to hold the area for several months, this will result in military costs that are hardly sustainable,” the expert, who previously served in the Austrian military, explained. Extending the front line “benefits Russia first and foremost,” he said an interview published on Saturday.

The incursion failed to force Russia to divert forces away from its ongoing major offensive in Donbass, where Moscow’s troops continue to gain ground. Ukraine’s units in the area are “pretty worn out” and are in dire need of reinforcements, according to the expert.

Moscow “has more weapons, ammunition and personnel that it can deploy to a longer frontline. Ukraine’s advantage of surprise could quickly turn into a disadvantage,” said Gressel, who also held a post in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Defense Ministry.

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The worst-case scenario for Kiev would be a defeat both in Kursk Region and Donbass, the expert warned. According to Gressel, Ukraine is hoping its operation on Russian soil will lift the morale both of its soldiers and the Ukrainian population, and, he believes, it will not give up on it even in the face of Russia’s military superiority. Russia would then “first hold Ukraine back and then wear it down” as Kiev would pour its limited resources into the operation.

“Ukraine could be seen as an unreliable daredevil,” Gressel said, adding that Kiev’s forces in Donbass “would run out of strength” as well. “There would be major territorial losses there.” Kiev’s Western backers such as Germany and the US would also likely reduce their support under these circumstances or even withdraw it completely, the expert warned.

“The Kursk maneuver could herald the end of Ukraine militarily,” Gressel stated.