Investor Sentiment Uncertain, Yet Bitcoin’s HODLing Trends Resurface During Market Decline

As the market navigates the largest downturn of this cycle, investor sentiment in the digital asset market remains uncertain.

Beneath the surface, however, Glassnode has found that there are clear signs of a resurgence in HODLing and accumulation.

Signs of Accumulation

Glassnode’s analysis of the on-chain investor response to these volatile market conditions indicates a growing inclination towards HODLing. Since bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high in March, the market experienced a prolonged phase of supply distribution involving wallets of varying sizes.

Over the past few weeks, however, this trend has started to reverse, notably among the largest wallets, often linked to ETFs. This cohort of investors seems to be transitioning back to a phase of accumulation.

BTC Accumulation. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) metric – which assesses a weighted balance change across the market – also suggests a shift back to accumulation-focused behavior. This renewed focus on accumulation has led the ATS to reach its maximum value of 1.0, signaling substantial accumulation over the past month.

Long-Term Holders (LTH) had heavily divested during the leading to the all-time high. This cohort has now returned to HODLing, with a total volume of +374k BTC migrating into LTH status over the last three months. From this, Glassnode inferred that “the propensity for investors to hold onto their coins is now a larger force relative to their spending pressures.”

“We can see substantial LTH distribution, typical of macro topping formations, into the March ATH. Fewer than 1.7% of trading days have ever recorded a larger distribution pressure. More recently, this metric has returned to positive territory, indicating that the LTH cohort is expressing a preference for holding onto their coins.”

When Rebound?

The Active Investor’s Cost-Basis is a crucial threshold that helps determine whether investors are feeling bullish or bearish about the market. Since the market has held steady around this point, Glassnode said that it shows that there’s some strength and that investors still expect the market to improve in the near future.

BTC Spot Cumulative Volume vs Price. Source: Glassnode

The report also suggests that bitcoin’s failure to push past the $70k mark can be partly due to a drop in current buying interest, meaning negative Adjusted Spot CVD. However, if buying interest improves and the Adjusted Spot CVD metric turns positive again, it could signal a potential rebound in demand.

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