‘Iran’s leaders should sleep with one eye open’: Trump’s plan to whip Middle East into shape revealed after election win

IRAN’S leaders “should sleep with one eye open” after Donald Trump’s re-election, experts have warned.

When Don returns to the White House, the Middle East is likely to be high on his agenda as regional tensions escalate by the day.

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Experts said Trump could ‘redefine’ a region that is teetering on the brink of all-out war[/caption]

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as his country says Trump’s re-election has ‘no significance’Alamy

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Smoke billows over the port city of Tyre in Lebanon amid the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israeli forces[/caption]

Since Hamas‘ October 7 massacre last year, conflict has ravaged the region as Israel and its allies fight to wipe out Iran’s terror proxies.

Experts believe a “pragmatic” Trump will start his term by applying “maximum pressure” on Iran – and continue “strengthening Israel’s hand”.

Some Israeli officials believe Trump will be the best person to bring about a “new Middle East” in a region that is teetering on the brink of all-out war.

With an “unconventional yet undeniably effective” approach to the Middle East in his previous terms, he’s expected to “prioritise stability and security” during a period of sky-high tensions.

And his unpredictability is likely to also be a major attribute – keeping allies on their toes and striking even more fear into his enemies, analysts said.

Dr Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, told The Sun: “Trump was firm on security issues.

“But he also demonstrated a willingness to put forward bold ideas to solve longstanding problems.

“This pragmatic streak gave him credibility as someone who could redefine the region’s future.”

Iran, in particular, “should be very cautious” about Trump returning to the White House, Dr Mendoza said.

Last month, Israel pummelled Iran with three waves of strikes dubbed “Days of Repentance”.

Israel said it was “conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran” in response to “relentless” attacks by Iran and its proxies since October 7 last year.

Dr Mendoza said: “Iran’s leaders should sleep with one eye open.

“If I was a mullah in Tehran, I’d be very alarmed indeed, because they already know that Trump has their card marked.

“Let’s not forget, he wanted maximum pressure on them.

“He tried to drive them drive the economy, out of orbit and try to topple the regime that way.

“He, of course, moved to strengthen Israel’s position in the region with the Sunni Arab states as well.

“This is very bad news for Iran. Going forward, it’s unlikely Trump will diverge from that policy.”

In September, Trump was also briefed on plots by Iran to assassinate him – allegations Iran dismissed as “unsubstantiated and malicious”.

And he has repeatedly said that, if he had been in power rather than Joe Biden, Hamas would not have attacked Israel.

Ashok Swain, a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden, said Iran will be “extra careful” when Trump takes office.

He told The Sun: “Other Gulf countries will be extra careful… because Trump, unlike Biden and Harris, will not pretend to play a neutral role.

“He will go on attacking Hamas, attacking Hezbollah, attacking the Houthis, and attacking Iran.”

Israel and Gulf Arab states have welcomed Trump’s victory.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X: Y”our historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!”

He called Trump the “best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”.

But Iran downplayed the election – claiming there is “no significant difference” in who becomes president in the US.

Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokesperson for the government, said the “general policies of the US and Iran are unchanged”, Iranian media reports.

But ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon will likely be at the top of Trump’s agenda.

Trump doesn’t want those wars “on his desk as a burning issue”, Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, told CNN.

And Dr Mendoza believes Trump will continue a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran – strengthening Israel’s position in the region to fight Hezbollah and Hamas.

He said: “Trump may continue to back Israeli actions against regional threats, like Hezbollah and Hamas.

“He has a history of strengthening Israel’s hand.”

“Trump has threatened to bomb Iran to pieces… but I think Trump will refrain from attacking Iran.”

And Trump’s Iran policies included from withdrawing the US from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing crippling sanctions.

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War has been raging in Lebanon as Israel battles Iran-backed terror proxy Hezbollah[/caption]

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Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu met in September during the UN General Assembly[/caption]

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A congratulatory billboard showing elected U.S. President Donald Trump on November 7 in Tel Aviv, Israel[/caption]

Both Dr Mendoza and Professor Swain agreed that a second Trump term would likely intensify these measures.

Dr Mendoza said: “Iran should be very cautious about a Trump return.

“His administration was clear about its opposition to Tehran’s regional ambitions and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.”

But Professor Swain said Trump’s unpredictability could yield certain advantages in international diplomacy – particularly in negotiations.

Dr Mendoza also hailed Trump’s unpredictability as a major attribute – saying it will strike even more fear into his enemies.

He said: “Trump is a very unpredictable individual when it comes to world affairs.

“His comprehensive victory means that US allies and enemies alike are going to have to re-calibrate their positions to reflect that.

“It is now going to be his global agenda that the world moves to.

“The history of the first Trump administration from 2016 to 2020 shows that those who engage and respect the USA did well, while those who denigrated and challenged it did badly.”

Although Trump hasn’t outlined how he would approach the war in Gaza and Lebanon, he attempted to broker a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians during his last four years in power.

He proposed a “two-state” solution dubbed “Peace to Prosperity” – but with strict conditions for Palestinians.

Dr Mendoza said: “Trump’s proposal for a two-state solution was interesting because it didn’t just involve the Palestinians gaining sovereignty.

“It involved creating a framework that would ensure both sides could coexist without compromising each other’s security.

“His position was much more nuanced than people initially assumed.”

Looking ahead, Dr Mendoza believes Trump’s return to office might open up the doors for similar policies or deals.

While it remains uncertain whether Trump would return to the two-state proposal, Dr Mendoza said he is likely to continue his “pragmatic” approach.

He said: “It’s likely that his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will still centre on pragmatic solutions that prioritise stability and security.

“It was surprising to many that Trump, despite being perceived as extremely pro-Israel, would entertain the notion of a two-state solution.”

He described this as a calculated move that reflected Trump’s ability to acknowledge Palestinian concerns without compromising security or alienating Israel.

“Trump was firm on security issues,” Dr Mendoza explained.

“But he also demonstrated a willingness to put forward bold ideas to solve longstanding problems.

“This pragmatic streak gave him credibility as someone who could redefine the region’s future.”

Dr Mendoza said Trump’s approach had been “unconventional yet undeniably effective”.

He praised Trump’s role in brokering the Abraham Accords – and said more could come.

The agreements normalised diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab nations like the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, representing a seismic shift in regional cooperation.

“He demonstrated that peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours was achievable without resolving the Palestinian question first—something previous administrations failed to recognise,” he said.

“If Trump returns to power, we may see new countries join these Accords, and perhaps even initiatives that indirectly consider the Palestinian issue.”

Boaz Bismuth, a member of Israel’s parliament, said Trump’s election came at “the right time” as it provides an opportunity to expand the Abraham Accords as the wars are coming to an end.

“When the war will be over, you’ll need a real restart in the Middle East,” Bismuth told CNN.

And Trump will be the best person to bring about a “new Middle East”, he added.

AFP

Iranians set a US and an Israeli flag on fire during a funeral procession organised to mourn military commander Qasem Soleimani after a US attack in Tehran in 2020[/caption]

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Iranians gather in the northeastern city of Mashhad on January 5, 2020 to pay homage to top general Qasem Soleimani and others after they were killed in a US strike in Baghdad[/caption]