Is Bitcoin (BTC) Price Heading for $70K Breakout or $40K Crash?

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Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped 4 percent in the past 24 hours to trade about $58,413 on Thursday, during the early Asian session. Therefore, the flagship coin is currently retesting the support level around $58k after being rejected severally at the resistance range between $61k and $62k. 

Following the recent daily death-cross between the 50 and 200 Moving Averages (MAs), the fear of further Bitcoin capitulation has significantly increased. 

As Bitcoin’s price slipped to $58k earlier today, Bitcoin’s fear and greed index dropped to 29 percent, signaling heightened fear of further capitulation.

Moreover, Bitcoin price against the US dollar has been forming lower lows and lower highs since March this year, a characteristic of a falling trend.

Bitcoin Whales on the Move

Amid the heightened Bitcoin price volatility, on-chain data shows whales and sharks have drastically increased their activities. For instance, a U.S.-associated wallet deposited 10k Bitcoins, worth nearly $600 million, to Coinbase Prime in the past 24 hours. Overall, the US government has deposited around 16k Bitcoins to Coinbase in 2024.

Currently, the US government holds around 203k Bitcoins, worth about $11.9 billion. The recent deposit follows the pledge made by presidential candidate Donald Trump that the U.S. government will not sell more coins if he is elected later this year.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT registered a net cash inflow of over $33 million on Wednesday, despite the notable cash outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC. Worth noting that Morgan Stanley disclosed a $187 million purchase of BlackRock’s IBIT.

Earlier today, Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital announced that it had completed the sale of $300 million long-term convertible senior notes to purchase more BTCs. The announcement follows the disclosure that the Norwegian and Swiss central banks have already purchased more than 1.5 million MicroStrategy shares combined in the recent past.

What Next?

Bitcoin price is expected to significantly benefit from the upcoming U.S. elections and potential interest rate cut next month. Notably, Wednesday’s CPI data suggested that the US inflation has been easing, thus pointing to possible rate cuts soon.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin price could be on the verge of a major bullish breakout to its all-time high or a significant crash towards $40k. However, if Bitcoin price closely mirrors that of Toncoin (TON), a potential rebound will pump the flagship coin towards $64k soon.