Is New Jersey Now A Swing State? Trump Narrows Gap In Historic Blue Region

Donald Trump won the US Presidential elections on Tuesday, defeating Vice-President Kamala Harris by 69 electoral votes. While Harris still carried New Jersey, Trump significantly reduced the gap from previous elections in the historically blue state. Having lost New Jersey by double digits in 2016 and 2020, Trump finished election night just five points behind Harris, the closest margin for a Republican presidential candidate in the state since George W Bush's 2.4-point loss in 1992.

This shift is significant considering the massive growth of registered Democratic voters in New Jersey who outnumber Republicans by a 900,000-voter margin. Yet, Trump's surge indicates that the state's traditionally solid Democratic slant is beginning to erode. 

Trump's influence extended beyond New Jersey, with the Republicans securing victories in key swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia, and currently leading in Arizona and Nevada. Trump even rallied in South Jersey, suggesting the state could be competitive, mentioning as recently as the weekend before the election that "a little birdie" told him he was leading Harris in New Jersey.

"We had a beautiful day yesterday," said Jose Arango, Republican Party chair of urban Hudson County, a region traditionally dominated by Democrats. Mr Arango believes that working-class Hispanics in Hudson County, struggling with rising rents and taxes, are increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo. 

Hudson County, home to a 41 per cent Hispanic population, saw a shift from 26 per cent support for Trump in 2020 to around 35 per cent this year. Similarly, Passaic County, which also boasts a significant Hispanic population, voted for Trump, contributing to a much closer-than-expected race in New Jersey's traditionally Democratic 9th District. Democrat Nellie Pou won the district by only 4 points, a visible contrast to her 34-point victory in 2020, Politico reported.

"We certainly saw a wave, a red wave, around the country last night," Ms Pou said, as per the outlet. 

The shifting demographics in Passaic County, home to one of the largest Arab American populations in the US, also played a significant role. "I think people are at a point where they're willing to use any means electorally to get their voice out," Ali Aljarrah, senior adviser for the Council on American-Islamic Relations Action New Jersey, told Politico. "It's not exclusive to the Arab or Muslim community. We see the Hispanic community even in Hudson County go rightwards."

Despite the unexpectedly tight race, Democrats managed to hold onto all nine of their House seats and retain a US Senate seat, which hasn't been Republican since 1972.