Israel’s ultra-Orthodox headache

David Rosenberg is an editor and a columnist at Haaretz English. He’s the author of “Israel’s Technology Economy” and a former bureau chief for Bloomberg News.

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority, Haredi, has enjoyed a good run over the past quarter of a century.

Successive right-wing governments have handed them access to power and money, a booming economy saw the government agree to a lifetime of religious study for the community’s men who wanted it, and a relatively quiet security environment enabled the ultra-Orthodox to fend off calls to serve in the army like other Israeli Jews are required to.

But the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7 changed all that.

Nine months later, the Haredim now find themselves the target of anger, not only from a broad swathe of the public but even from their traditional allies in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious-right coalition. Indeed, current divisions over two pieces of Haredi-friendly legislation may even bring down the government.

The first bill — the so-called rabbis’ law — would have created hundreds of jobs for new municipal rabbis, whose salaries would be paid by the central government. In ordinary times, this law probably would have passed the Knesset without much fuss — just another measure to direct more public cash to the ultra-Orthodox. But this time, amid complaints that the government has no business sponsoring such legislation during a costly war, there’s been revolt even from the backbenchers in Netanyahu’s Likud party.

The prime minister tried to contain this rebellion, but he gave up last month when he realized the bill wouldn’t pass.

The second bill, meanwhile, aroused even more opposition, as it would effectively legalize the conscription exemption granted to young Haredi men. In this case, the initial rebellion was put down, allowing the bill to pass the first of the three readings it would need to become law. But revolting lawmakers have vowed to oppose it unless substantial revisions are made.

Haredim now find themselves the target of anger. | Amir Levy/Getty Images

Moreover, after the High Court of Justice’s recent ruling that the army must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men, the bill may never reach its final reading anyway. Although the court order didn’t explicitly state how many of the 63,000 currently exempt men must be called up, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara said it could initially be no less than 3,000. So, the Netanyahu government is now faced with the impossible task of squaring the ruling with Haredi insistence on maintaining exemption.

Normally, this sort of clash would be unexpected. When Netanyahu’s government was formed in 2022, the partnership between the center-right Likud, the extreme right and the ultra-Orthodox seemed firm. It wasn’t as if they saw eye to eye, but there was enough convergence of interest to ensure each would have the support of the others on core issues.

The prime minister would get his judicial overhaul because his partners believed a neutered High Court would save their own agendas from being struck down on constitutional grounds. The far right would get carte blanche to strengthen Israel’s grip on the West Bank, which the center right and ultra-Orthodox had no objection to. And the Haredim would receive even more money, as well as the continued draft exemption.

But to fully understand just how much Oct. 7 changed all this, one must first look at the decades before, starting with the ultra-Orthodox themselves and their “society of learners” — a term that refers to the idea that adult men should engage in the study of Torah rather than hold jobs or serve in the army. Today, only a little more than half of Haredi men are in the workforce, compared to nearly 90 percent of non-Haredi Jewish men. And many of the ultra-Orthodox who do work hold state-funded jobs of unclear economic value, like municipal rabbis.

This “society of learners” was enabled by a succession of right-wing governments that were prepared to provide financial support to yeshiva students in exchange for their political backing of the Haredi. Israeli taxpayers should have rebelled against this quid pro quo, but for the last 20 years — until Oct. 7 — they just gritted their teeth. The economy was growing, and the tax burden had declined, so the draft exemption never sparked more than occasional protest.

The Haredi leadership seems incapable of dealing with this new reality. | Faiz Abu Rmeleh/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

It was hard to cultivate wider opposition for the simple reason that — by Israel’s low threshold — the country was at peace. And as mandatory military service and reserve call-ups were cut sharply, even if the burden was unequal, no one was bothered that much — except for activists who challenged it in the courts, triggering years of legal wrangling.

But present military and economic challenges have shifted the political dynamics. The war with Hamas — and the parallel war with Hezbollah in Lebanon — has led to the highest military death and casually toll in years. But, exempt from military duty, the Haredi minority has been spared this suffering. Indeed, the part of the Israeli population hit hardest by all this is the National Religious sector — Israelis who practice a more moderate form of Orthodoxy and serve in the army. They were once sympathetic to the ultra-Orthodox exemption, but no more.

The other change is less existential but no less important. The war has forced the army to call up more reservists for longer stints than at any time for over the last two generations. Men, and often women, have been pulled away from their jobs, their studies and their families for weeks, even months at a time — a burden the ultra-Orthodox don’t share.

Their excuse that Torah learning is tantamount to army service because it provides Israel with divine protection was never taken seriously by the secular public, but now it elicits derision. And as the era of peace and prosperity for Israel is unlikely to return quickly even once the war in Gaza ends — the same will be true of the free ride for the Haredim.

As Israel adjusts to a less secure national security environment, defense spending and army service are only set to grow. Even if Hamas is defeated, the threat from Hezbollah and Iran has increased. And the thought that the challenges ahead won’t be shared by the 13 percent of Israelis estimated to be Haredi is no longer tolerable for most.

The heavier military burden is also likely to weigh on economic growth. Taxes and/or budget deficits will grow, more workdays will be lost to reserve duty, and business and consumer confidence will take time to recover. With the fiscal pie smaller than it was before Oct. 7, competition for funding for schools, hospitals, roads and public transportation will increase as well.

But the Haredi leadership seems incapable of dealing with this new reality. Their response to the High Court ruling was uncompromising condemnation. and it seems that cut off from the secular society around them, the community’s rabbis don’t have the tools or understanding to digest the change.