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4 months ago
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CONSUMED by the drama of our own general election it would be easy to overlook an even more dramatic shift in power occurring across the Channel.
It is only half time in the French general election – there will be a run-off next Sunday – but results from the first round are a pretty good indication of how things are going.
Getty
Getty
Getty
AFPNational Rally, the anti-migration, Eurosceptic party which used to be on the racist fringes of French politics but which has been ‘de-demonised’ over the past decade by former leader Marine Le Pen, topped the poll with 33 percent of the vote.
A far-left wing block called the New Popular Front came second with 28 percent and the centrist Ensemble Alliance – which includes the party of President Emmanuel Macron – came third with 20 percent.
To draw an analogy with Britain it is as if Reform UK had just stormed to victory, with an alliance of the Socialist Workers Party and the Green Party in second place, demoting the Conservatives and Labour into third and fourth places.
It was so alarming to some that even French football captain Kylian Mbappe took a break from the Euros to warn that the “extremists are at the gates”.
Thankfully, Harry Kane has kept his politics to himself and concentrated on the football.
Calling the election now has proved an even more fatal miscalculation on the part of Macron than Britain’s early election was on the part of Rishi Sunak.
Macron’s position is not itself at threat, as the French Presidency sits above Parliament and his term runs until 2027, but the outcome will mean him having very little influence over French domestic politics and struggling to impose his foreign policy, too.
Some suspect he may choose to resign rather than struggle on for another three years.
And to think that Macron called this election in an attempt to defeat National Rally after the party triumphed in the European Parliament elections four weeks ago.
He thought he would force voters to come back to their senses. Some hope.
Macron will not be the only loser from the French election, however.
It is terrible news for the EU’s elite – and for Britain’s lingering Remainers who still harbour dreams of Britain rejoining the bloc even if Keir Starmer has ruled it out.
The National Rally is a long way from the openly racist and antisemitic party founded by Le Pen’s father Jean Marie in 1972.
Nor does the standard description of it as ‘far right’ make sense. Economically it is on the left.
It opposes Macron’s efforts to get the public finances back into order by raising the state pension age from 62 to 64.
Seen from Britain where the state pension age is already 66 and there is broad acceptance that it needs to be raised to 68 in order to stave off national bankruptcy, the protests may seem to be a little unreasonable.
Yet Macron’s reforms sparked riots across France last year.
But that isn’t the whole story behind the National Rally’s surge. As in Britain, migration is a huge issue.
There is growing rebellion, too, against EU bureaucracy and free trade.
Back in January mass protests by farmers attracted widespread public support from people who believe the EU is undermining the French way of life.
Macron and his urban-centric party seem to have little sympathy with ordinary people living in the provinces, whose lives have been made a misery by, among other things, green taxes.
What’s more, in contrast to Britain, where Euroscepticism and anti-net zero sentiments are often written off as pre-occupations of the elderly and middle-aged, National Rally has growing support among the young.
Its current leader, Jordan Bardella, who could be Prime Minister of France next week if his party gains a majority of seats, is just 28.
National Rally no longer advocates ‘Frexit’, but has a strategy which should strike more fear into the hearts of the Brussels elite – Le Pen and her followers want to undermine the EU from within.
They want to block its rules on free movement and erect protectionist barriers.
The EU of UK Remainers’ imagination – the left-liberal paradise which they like to try to contrast with what they see as ‘narrow-minded’, ‘xenophobic’ Britain – never really did exist.
But it is certainly doomed now, with political revolutions in many European countries echoing that in France.
Britain, remarkably, is beginning to stand out as a relative oasis of calm in a troubled Europe.
It is more open to trade and has a more liberal economy, and more flexible labour market, than France – and that is unlikely to change too much even if Starmer becomes PM on Friday.
Even Alistair Campbell recently retorted that he wondered whether the EU, as it is evolving, is really something he wants to be part of any longer.
Many other British Remainers may soon come to the conclusion, after all, that their country is better off out.
Rex
AP
GettyHow do French elections work?
THE French public choose their president and MPs in separate elections – unlike in the UK where the country’s leader, the PM, is determined by which party has a majority in parliament.
There are 577 seats – and constituencies – in France’s National Assembly.
For an absolute majority in government a party would need 289 seats.
France’s parliamentary elections are made up of two rounds, with the first kicking out anyone who fails to win 12.5% of votes in their area.
If any candidates get more than 50% of the vote in their area, and at least a quarter of the local voter pool turns out to cast their ballot, they win a seat automatically.
This doesn’t happen very often, but RN thinks this time it could happen in dozens of seats.
The second round, for any seats which candidates do not win outright, is then a series of knock-outs fought either by two, three or sometimes four candidates.
Some candidates may drop out before the second round on July 7 to give their allies a better chance over another candidate in a three or four-way race.
French leaders are urging candidates and voters to act tactically to stop the far-right surge.
But polling shows voters may be unwilling to vote tactically and to form the so-called “Republican Front” – a united movement to block for the National Rally.
A poll by Odoxa found that only 41 per cent of voters were willing to vote to block the RN – while some 47 per cent would vote to stop NFP or some 44 per cent to stop Together.
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