Kamala Harris Reaches Her Mail In Ballot Firewall In Pennsylvania

Good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania, as they have reached their needed ballot firewall of 400,000 votes before election day.

Here are the numbers:

Pennsylvania – 2024 General Election – Day 20

1,742,908 votes cast

DEM: 973,363 – 81.1% returned
GOP: 572,481 – 80.1% returned
IND: 197,064 – 69.9% returned

VBM Splits: 55.9% / 32.8% / 11.3%

Ballot Edge: +400,882
Return Edge: +1

Thoughts

— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) November 2, 2024

Independents are expected to break for Harris by about a 70/30 margin, so the Democratic firewall is expected to be closer to 500,000 votes. Republicans have increased their vote by mail percentage and turnout, but the problem is that much of that vote is coming from smaller rural counties, where there is less overall vote, so it is possible that Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote in these counties.

Pennsylvania does not appear to be breaking for Trump like he wanted. More Democrats are voting on election day as they traditionally did before COVID, and there is more Democratic vote outstanding potentially on election day than there is for Republicans.

It is difficult to predict what will happen on election day, but Trump would current have to put up some big election day numbers to win the state.

Heading into election day, Kamala Harris is in a much better position than Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.

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