Kyiv’s dilemma: Gaza overshadows Ukraine for non-NATO countries

SINGAPORE — After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv faced another uphill battle: convincing non-NATO countries to row in behind it and ditch ties with Moscow.

That was a tough task. A long history of colonial rule in some countries outside NATO or the G7 group of industrialized nations, coupled with frustration at the West’s sidelining of other global conflicts, from Sudan to Yemen, prompted accusations of double standards as Europe and the United States leapt to Ukraine’s defense. But Kyiv’s outreach efforts had been making progress.

That is, until the Hamas Oct. 7 attack on Israel with its subsequent Israeli and Western response, which has hurt Ukraine’s efforts to shore up international support, given the traditionally pro-Palestinian stance of many countries across Africa, Asia and South America. 

“There is a clear dividing line: Before Oct. 7, Ukraine and European countries had made progress working with countries of the so-called Global South, casting the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an illegal attack by Russia on its smaller, independent neighbor,” said Nico Lange, a former German politician who is now a senior fellow with the Munich Security Conference.

“Now, some of these countries are questioning countries, like Germany’s, strong defense of Israel. It’s a problem for Ukraine policy.”

Ukraine’s uphill battle

Kyiv’s challenge will be on show at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier security and defense conference, which kicks off Friday in Singapore — just two weeks before a Ukraine peace summit to be held in neutral Switzerland.

While the focus in Singapore will be the security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region, Ukraine is expected to send a high-level delegation as it continues its efforts to persuade countries outside NATO to stop doing business with Russia.

“Ukraine is fighting not just on the battlefield, but also for the hearts and minds of people around the world,” the country’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told POLITICO.

“Ukrainians fight for freedom, while Russians seek to subjugate another nation. Our struggle resonates deeply with many in Asia, Africa, and Latin America,” he added, highlighting how Ukraine has succeeded in exporting more agricultural products beyond Europe since before the Russian invasion. 

Getting the wider world on board has been a key focus of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the outbreak of the war. He has met with leaders from South Africa to Guatemala, often on the sidelines of international gatherings. He’s also visited countries like Saudi Arabia, which is positioning itself as a mediator as Ukraine pushes for a peace plan.

The Philippine’ Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo said his country, which has been subject to increasingly assertive actions by China, has supported successive United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“Aside from the humanitarian suffering, [Russia’s actions] were basically a violation of the U.N. Charter and the principles of U.N. and international law,” he told POLITICO in an interview in Singapore Thursday. “We see parallels to what’s happening in our region, and therefore we have to support that principle of the sanctity of international law. Otherwise, we’ll be in for hard times if it’s not observed.”

Kyiv’s challenge will be on show at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier security and defense conference. | Nhac Nguyen/AFP via Getty Images

Intense diplomatic negotiations have stepped up ahead of the Swiss peace summit on June 15 to 16, with Zelenskyy pleading with countries across the world, including China and the United States, to send their leaders. 

But the war in Gaza creates a difficult dynamic for Kyiv as it tries to shore up support from the international community amid a bleak military backdrop. Ukrainian troops are struggling to fend off Russian attacks, particularly in Ukraine’s northeast.

With attention turned to the Middle East, and the divide over Gaza widening, indefatigable Zelenskyy has struggled to cut through.

“I think the mood has shifted,” said Evan A. Laksmana, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. “I would say that in southeast Asia, Gaza is higher in terms of top concerns than Ukraine.”

The Taiwan angle

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has long been presented as a cautionary tale in the Asia-Pacific region — demonstrating how a smaller nation can be invaded overnight by a bigger, more powerful neighbor. 

China’s aggression in the South China Sea has caused ructions with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and Brunei, which claim zones in the sea, and is making those smaller countries more open to Ukraine’s arguments. China’s claim over Taiwan, along with territorial disputes with Japan and India, are also contributing to tensions in the region.

“Now, I think that conversation is a bit different,” Laksmana said. 

In light of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, where tens of thousands of civilians have been killed, now many developing countries are querying the international rules-based order as justification for the West’s support for Ukraine. They see some of the same states that are batting hard for Ukraine as turning a blind eye to what’s happening in Gaza.

Indonesia and Malaysia, both Muslim-majority countries, have strongly criticized Israel and its allies. In a recent opinion piece for The Economist, Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto lambasted the West for caring more about Ukrainians than Palestinians. 

“When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West led the global campaign of condemnation. It called for the world to denounce Russia in the name of human rights and international law,” he wrote. “Today, however, the same countries are allowing yet another bloody conflict, this time in Gaza.”

The comments came after Prabowo provoked widespread controversy at last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, when he was still Indonesia’s defense minister, by urging Ukraine to accept a Korea-like demilitarized zone with Moscow. That would effectively oblige Kyiv to accept the loss of territories conquered by Russia.

Prabowo is due to deliver a keynote address Saturday in Singapore.

In a recent opinion piece for The Economist, Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto lambasted the West for caring more about Ukrainians than Palestinians. | Karim Jaafar/AFP via Getty Images

Not Asia’s war

Even before the violence in the Middle East, there were signs Russia was winning the PR war among developing nations. The latest Democracy Perception Index, an annual survey of more than 60,000 people across 53 countries, showed backing for Moscow gradually increased between 2022 and 2024 outside of Europe and the United States.

The survey found that while support to cut economic ties with Russia remains strong in the U.S. and EU, the picture is radically different elsewhere in the world, where most said they want to maintain economic links with Russia.

“There is a sense of fatigue: Some Southeast Asian countries want the war to end and are more relaxed about ‘how’ than the West is,” said a senior European diplomat, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “In addition, the ‘double standards’ argument on Gaza has quite some legs with some.” 

Getting those countries on board will be a key challenge for Ukraine as it battles a well-armed adversary and struggles to get the ammunition and manpower it needs to secure victory.