Meet the Tory mafia trying to blow up Rishi Sunak

LONDON — Rishi Sunak just survived the most dangerous moment of his premiership. That doesn’t mean his Tory enemies are waving the white flag.

The British prime minister was handed an 11th-hour reprieve on Tuesday night when Tory rebels threatening to vote down his flagship immigration laws chose to sit on their hands, allowing the bill to clear its first House of Commons hurdle.

But already, a so-called “five families” of mafia-style Tory MP gangs who want the laws toughened up are gearing up for the next fight. 

“The threat remains,” said one potential rebel MP, who wants the legislation rewritten before a final Commons vote — known as the bill’s third reading — early next year.

“If too many people are dissatisfied they could vote against at third reading,” the MP warned, claiming the five-strong union of rebel factions “absolutely can bring it down, easily” if it chooses to do so.

The battle has been triggered by Sunak’s pledge to stop undocumented migrants from arriving on U.K. shores — a tall order given tens of thousands currently cross the English Channel each year. Last week the PM put forward emergency legislation designed to overrule a Supreme Court judgement that his plan to deport asylum seekers to the central African nation of Rwanda is illegal. 

While Sunak has convinced the centrists in his party that his draft law does not breach Britain’s international human rights obligations, the Conservative right — by contrast — is adamant the legislation is not tough enough. Dozens of Tory right-wingers fear the plan will still be blocked by European courts if the legislation does not explicitly rule out such an outcome.

In the end Sunak only avoided a humiliating Commons defeat on Tuesday after assuring right-wing rebels their concerns would be listened to.

“This bill could be so much better. Let’s make it better,” said Sunak’s former immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, who quit the government in protest last week. He was among 29 Tory hardliners who abstained in Tuesday’s vote — sufficient to defeat the government if they all chose to vote against the bill next time.

One former Tory strategist, familiar with the thinking of the right of the party, believes the prime minister can now peel off potential rebels if he learns the lessons of the past week and engages closely with influential MPs.

“As long as the government aren’t too stupid, they’ll be fine,” said the former strategist, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak frankly about party matters.

“The problem is, Rishi’s team will think [that because they won Tuesday’s vote] they were right all along,” the strategist added.

Sunak’s former immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, quit the government in protest last week | Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

“We don’t have a problem with those who say it is good news [the government avoided defeat]. We do have a problem with those people who question what all the fuss was about. That shows that some people don’t get the problem,” warned the would-be-rebel MP quoted at the top of the article.

A new hardline

Sunak’s struggles on migration have been widely compared to Theresa May’s backbench battles over Brexit in 2018 and 2019. But while May had to contend with only one right-wing caucus of Tory MPs — the European Research Group, or ERG — Sunak is facing a rebel army with many flanks.

A flurry of new Tory groupings were set up after the 2019 election, as MPs noted the ERG’s long-standing influence over Downing Street and its success in winning ministerial posts for its prominent members. 

Now working alongside the ERG are the New Conservatives, the group which now appears to pose the most hardline threat to Sunak. Those attending rebel meetings this week noted the New Conservatives had pushed hardest for the bill to be voted down immediately.

“It is the New Conservatives who are the hardliners which, compared to the good old days, is a bit of a turn-up,” the MP quoted above said. 

The group’s leader, Danny Kruger, a former aide to Boris Johnson, sits on a comfortable majority in rural south west of England. But many of his fellow members are MPs in more vulnerable seats who won their seats in 2019 off the back of Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done.”

“They don’t believe Rishi’s brand of Conservatism is going to win the election — and the polls would agree with them,” said a former Tory whip who has closely followed the evolution of the group.

Old guard staying relevant

That doesn’t mean the European Research Group has retired from front-line duty. 

Its “star chamber” of lawyers, led by the 83-year-old veteran Bill Cash, has delivered a withering verdict that Sunak’s legislation is a “partial and incomplete solution.” ERG leader Mark Francois toured broadcast studios on Monday to call for the government to make changes to the bill.

“The trouble is people like Mark Francois just think the government is constantly trying to get one over on them and constantly take an adversarial position,” sighed one Tory minister who supports Sunak’s approach. “It makes it hard to listen to them.”

Teaming up with other backbench groups has also helped the ERG — not the force it was during the May era — stay relevant.  

“The ‘five families’ thing is complete bullshit, but it is something that Mark Francois and John Hayes [leader of the Common Sense Group faction] like, because it makes them personally important, because they don’t really have individual numbers,” the ex-Tory strategist said. 

No love for Rishi

The Common Sense Group, set up in 2020 to cheerlead a “war on woke,” is led by veteran MP Hayes. He is one of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s closest allies. Braverman, whom Sunak fired last month, delivered an excoriating verdict on his migration strategy as she left the government.

The Northern Research Group and Conservative Growth Group, the other two factions within the “five families” discussions, also have close ties to Sunak-critics.

They were represented at the “five families” meetings by Jake Berry and Simon Clarke respectively — two key allies of Liz Truss, whom Sunak replaced as PM following her short-lived premiership. 

But while historic animosities toward the prime minister are obvious in some places, the MP quoted above insisted other “five families” members are more forgiving.

“There are some ABRs, or ‘Anyone But Rishi’s,'” the MP agreed. “But on the whole, people know that Rishi has a tough gig. They know whoever is in that seat would have a tough gig.”

Other members are more concerned with the “five families” nickname itself —  a reference to the five Italian American Mafia crime families that famously operated in New York.

“Whoever put that out there needs shooting,” one of the MPs involved said. “We all know how that ended.”

Sunak is still pondering whether he will yet fall victim to Westminster’s newest political mafia.